相关论文: A Forecast-driven Hierarchical Factor Model with A…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…

When generating social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is essential both to forecast mortality accurately and ensure that forecasts at the subnational level add up to the forecasts at the national level.…

We address the problem of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series through a two-fold dimension reduction procedure. The difficulty of forecasting high-dimensional functional time series lies in the curse of dimensionality. In…

Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…

Mortality forecasting methods in the Lee-Carter tradition extrapolate temporal components via time-series models, often producing forecasts that systematically underpredict life expectancy at long horizons. This bias is consequential for…

Heart failure (HF) discharge planning depends on identifying patients at risk of deterioration or death, yet accurate prediction from routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) remains challenging. We developed and validated…

In areas of application, including actuarial science and demography, it is increasingly common to consider a time series of curves; an example of this is age-specific mortality rates observed over a period of years. Given that age can be…

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a widely used technique in exploratory data analysis, visualization, and data preprocessing, leveraging the concept of variance to identify key dimensions in datasets. In this study, we focus on the…

Factor-based forecasting using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is an effective machine learning tool for dimension reduction with many applications in statistics, economics, and finance. This paper introduces a Supervised Screening and…

We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…

Identifying and characterizing relationships between treatments, exposures, or other covariates and time-to-event outcomes has great significance in a wide range of biomedical settings. In research areas such as multi-center clinical…

High-frequency death counts are now widely available and contain timely information about intra-year mortality dynamics, but most stochastic mortality models are still estimated on annual data and therefore update only when annual totals…

Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…

Age-specific life-table death counts observed over time are examples of densities. Non-negativity and summability are constraints that sometimes require modifications of standard linear statistical methods. The centered log-ratio…

We introduce a nonparametric bootstrap procedure based on a dynamic factor model to construct pointwise prediction intervals for period life-table death counts. The age distribution of death counts is an example of constrained data, which…

Background: Effective allocation of limited donor lungs in cystic fibrosis (CF) requires accurate survival predictions, so that high-risk patients may be prioritized for transplantation. In practice, decisions about allocation are made…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…