相关论文: Towards reliable projections of global mean surfac…
Climate predictions are only meaningful if the associated uncertainty is reliably estimated. A standard practice for providing climate projections is to use an ensemble of projections. The ensemble mean serves as the projection while the…
This paper estimates the two-component energy balance model as a linear state space system (EBM-SS model) using historical data. It is a joint model for the temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature in the deep ocean layer, and…
Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…
Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
We introduce a novel Earth-like planet surface temperature model (ESTM) for habitability studies based on the spatial-temporal distribution of planetary surface temperatures. The ESTM adopts a surface Energy Balance Model complemented by:…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
Global warming, the phenomenon of increasing global average temperature in the recent decades, is receiving wide attention due to its very significant adverse effects on climate. Whether global warming will continue even in the future, is a…
Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and…
Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (phase 6) (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) values ranging between 1.8 and 5.7 $^\circ$C. To narrow this range, we group 38 GCMs into low, medium…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…