相关论文: Bayesian inference with tmbstan for a state-space …

State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure.…

Approximate Bayesian inference for the class of latent Gaussian models can be achieved efficiently with integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). Based on recent reformulations in the INLA methodology, we propose a further extension…

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) with partial likelihoods involving a latent structure often entail an intractable marginalization, thus making inference hard. We propose a novel approach to Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) involving…

A Bayesian inference method for problems with small samples and sparse data is presented in this paper. A general type of prior ($\propto 1/\sigma^{q}$) is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior for inference problems under small…

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

We consider the problem of parametric statistical inference when likelihood computations are prohibitively expensive but sampling from the model is possible. Several so-called likelihood-free methods have been developed to perform inference…

An assumed density approximate likelihood is derived for a class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models which permit observational over-dispersion. This is achieved by treating time-varying reporting probabilities as latent…

The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by…

We study reinforcement learning with function approximation for large-scale Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) where the state space and observation space are large or even continuous. Particularly, we consider Hilbert…

Variational inference is a general framework to obtain approximations to the posterior distribution in a Bayesian context. In essence, variational inference entails an optimization over a given family of probability distributions to choose…

For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational…

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a convenient way to obtain approximations to the posterior marginals for parameters in Bayesian hierarchical models when the latent effects can be expressed as a Gaussian Markov Random…

Calculating the expected information gain in optimal Bayesian experimental design typically relies on nested Monte Carlo sampling. When the model also contains nuisance parameters, which are parameters that contribute to the overall…

Bayesian estimation of a mixed quantum state can be approximated via maximum likelihood (MaxLike) estimation when the likelihood function is sharp around its maximum. Such approximations rely on asymptotic expansions of multi-dimensional…

Bayesian predictive inference provides a coherent description of entire predictive uncertainty through predictive distributions. We examine several widely used sparsity priors from the predictive (as opposed to estimation) inference…

Laplace's method is used to approximate intractable integrals in a statistical problems. The relative error rate of the approximation is not worse than $O_p(n^{-1})$. We provide the first statistical lower bounds showing that the $n^{-1}$…

We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…

Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…

Envelope models provide a sufficient dimension reduction framework for multivariate regression analysis. Bayesian inference for these models has been developed primarily using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Specifically, Gibbs…

Within Bayesian state estimation, considerable effort has been devoted to incorporating constraints into state estimation for process optimization, state monitoring, fault detection and control. Nonetheless, in the domain of state-space…