相关论文: Bayesian inference with tmbstan for a state-space …

We perform approximate inference in state-space models with nonlinear state transitions. Without parameterizing a generative model, we apply Bayesian update formulas using a local linearity approximation parameterized by neural networks.…

Many models require integrals of high-dimensional functions: for instance, to obtain marginal likelihoods. Such integrals may be intractable, or too expensive to compute numerically. Instead, we can use the Laplace approximation (LA). The…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…

Model selection is an important activity in modern data analysis and the conventional Bayesian approach to this problem involves calculation of marginal likelihoods for different models, together with diagnostics which examine specific…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods remain the mainstay of Bayesian estimation of structural equation models (SEM), though they often incur a high computational cost. We present a bespoke approximate Bayesian approach to SEM, drawing on…

Parameter estimation and associated uncertainty quantification is an important problem in dynamical systems characterized by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models that are often nonlinear. Typically, such models have analytically…

Current approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) exhibit a crucial limitation: they fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, i.e. BNNs assign different posterior densities to different parametrizations of…

Spatial modelling often uses Gaussian random fields to capture the stochastic nature of studied phenomena. However, this approach incurs significant computational burdens (O(n3)), primarily due to covariance matrix computations. In this…

The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. Nevertheless, in areas ranging from longitudinal studies in biostatistics to geostatistics, it is easy to find datasets that…

Local projections (LPs) are widely used for impulse response analysis, but Bayesian methods face challenges due to the absence of a likelihood function. Existing approaches rely on pseudo-likelihoods, which often result in poorly calibrated…

Using theoretical and numerical results, we document the accuracy of commonly applied variational Bayes methods across a range of state space models. The results demonstrate that, in terms of accuracy on fixed parameters, there is a clear…

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…

The INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models has been shown to give fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals and also to be a valuable tool in practice via the R-package R-INLA. In this paper we…

We recently proposed a method for estimation of states and parameters in stochastic differential equations, which included intermediate time points between observations and used the Laplace approximation to integrate out these intermediate…

Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…

We present two approximate Bayesian inference methods for parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models with space-dependent and state-dependent parameters. We demonstrate that these methods provide accurate and…

We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the…

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, whose regression curves are a set of solution curves for some ODEs, poses a challenge in parameter estimation. The challenge, due to the frequent absence of analytic solutions and the…