相关论文: Bayesian inference with tmbstan for a state-space …

Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) has been a successful approximate Bayesian inference framework since its proposal by Rue et al. (2009). The increased computational efficiency and accuracy when compared with sampling-based…

This article presents new methodology for sample-based Bayesian inference when data are partitioned and communication between the parts is expensive, as arises by necessity in the context of "big data" or by choice in order to take…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

The key operation in Bayesian inference, is to compute high-dimensional integrals. An old approximate technique is the Laplace method or approximation, which dates back to Pierre- Simon Laplace (1774). This simple idea approximates the…

Laplace's method approximates a target density with a Gaussian distribution at its mode. It is computationally efficient and asymptotically exact for Bayesian inference due to the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, but for complex targets and…

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

We consider the problem of estimating states and parameters in a model based on a system of coupled stochastic differential equations, based on noisy discrete-time data. Special attention is given to nonlinear dynamics and state-dependent…

The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference is an efficient approach to estimate the posterior marginal distributions of the parameters and latent effects of Bayesian hierarchical models that can be expressed…

Various computational challenges arise when applying Bayesian inference approaches to complex hierarchical models. Sampling-based inference methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo strategies, are renowned for providing accurate results…

The Laplace approximation is an old, but frequently used method to approximate integrals for Bayesian calculations. In this paper we develop an extension of the Laplace approximation, by applying it iteratively to the residual, i.e., the…

A computationally simple approach to inference in state space models is proposed, using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of an intractable likelihood by matching summary statistics for the observed data with…

Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with…

We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…

Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…

Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation provides a fast and effective method for marginal inference on Bayesian hierarchical models. This methodology has been implemented in the R-INLA package which permits INLA to be used from within R…

Likelihood-free inference (LFI) has been successfully applied to state-space models, where the likelihood of observations is not available but synthetic observations generated by a black-box simulator can be used for inference instead.…

Selecting hyperparameters in deep learning greatly impacts its effectiveness but requires manual effort and expertise. Recent works show that Bayesian model selection with Laplace approximations can allow to optimize such hyperparameters…

Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…