相关论文: Testing and Validating Two Morphological Flare Pre…

We investigated how the magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs) controls flare activity, i.e., whether a confined or eruptive flare occurs. We analyzed 44 flares of GOES class M5.0 and larger that occurred during 2011--2015. We used 3D…

We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using…

Active regions (ARs) appear in the solar atmosphere as a consequence of the emergence of magnetic flux-ropes (FR). In this study, we use Bayesian methods to analyze line-of-sight magnetograms of emerging ARs. We employ a FR model consisting…

High radio frequencies observations with the Italian network of large single-dish radio telescopes resulted in ~450 solar images between 2018 and 2023 in K-band frequency range (18-26 GHz). Solar radio mapping at these frequencies allows…

We develop forecast models of daily probability of major flares (M- and X-class) based on empirical relationships between photospheric magnetic parameters and daily flaring rates from May 2010 to April 2018. In this study, we consider ten…

Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient ($WG_{M}$), introduced in Korsos et al (2015), for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue.…

Solar flares, the most powerful explosive phenomena in the solar system, may pose significant hazards to spaceborne satellites and ground-based infrastructure. Despite decades of intensive research, reliable flare prediction remains a…

In this paper we present a topological magnetic field investigation of seven two-ribbon flares in sigmoidal active regions observed with Hinode, STEREO, and SDO. We first derive the 3D coronal magnetic field structure of all regions using…

This paper presents a post hoc analysis of a deep learning-based full-disk solar flare prediction model. We used hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and selected binary prediction mode to predict the occurrence of…

Photospheric vector magnetograms from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamic Observatory are utilized as the boundary conditions to extrapolate both non-linear force-free and potential magnetic fields in solar corona.…

The R-value is a measure of the strength of photospheric magnetic Polarity Inversion Lines (PILs) in Active Regions (ARs). This work investigates the possibility of a relation between R-value variations and the occurrence of X-class flares…

The triggering mechanism(s) and critical condition(s) of solar flares are still not completely clarified, although various studies have attempted to elucidate them. We have also proposed a theoretical flare-trigger model based on MHD…

Accurate solar flare prediction is crucial due to the significant risks that intense solar flares pose to astronauts, space equipment, and satellite communication systems. Our research enhances solar flare prediction by utilizing advanced…

Sympathetic solar flares are eruptions that occur nearby in space and time, driven by an apparent interaction between the active regions in which they are triggered. Their statistical existence on the Sun has yet to be firmly established.…

We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and…

Spectroscopic observations of solar flares provide critical diagnostics of the physical conditions in the flaring atmosphere. Some key features in observed spectra have not yet been accounted for in existing flare models. Here we report a…

We explore the association of non-neutralized currents with solar flare occurrence in a sizable sample of observations, aiming to show the potential of such currents in solar flare prediction. We use the regularly produced high quality…

Solar flare forecasting research using machine learning (ML) has focused on high resolution magnetogram data from the SDO/HMI era covering Solar Cycle 24 and the start of Solar Cycle 25, with some efforts looking back to SOHO/MDI for data…

We present a case study of solar flare forecasting by means of metadata feature time series, by treating it as a prominent class-imbalance and temporally coherent problem. Taking full advantage of pre-flare time series in solar active…