相关论文: Testing and Validating Two Morphological Flare Pre…

We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic feature properties (MF) generated by Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) for solar flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART detections from 1996 to 2010 that has…

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active…

Recent studies indicate that measurements of fractal and multifractal parameters of active regions (ARs) are not efficient tools to discriminate ARs on the basis of the flare activity, as well as to predict flare events. Attempting…

A solar active region (AR) that produces at least one M- or X-class major flare tends to produce multiple flares during its passage across the solar disk. It will be interesting if we can estimate how flare-productive a given major flaring…

Charged particles, generated in solar flares, sometimes can get extremely high energy, above the 500 MeV level, and produce abrupt ground level enhancements (GLEs) on the ground-based detectors of cosmic rays. The initial flares are strong…

Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. In this paper, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting…

Current post-processing techniques for the correction of atmospheric seeing in solar observations -- such as Speckle interferometry and Phase Diversity methods -- have limitations when it comes to their reconstructive capabilities of solar…

All three components of the current density are required to compute the heating rate due to free magnetic energy dissipation. Here we present a first test of a new model developed to determine if the times of increases in the resistive…

The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…

We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…

We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…

A question often arises as to why some solar flares are confined in the lower corona while others, termed eruptive flares, are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Here we intend to rank the importance of pre-flare magnetic…

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…

Solar active regions (ARs) are the places hosting the majority of solar eruptions. Studying the evolution and morphological features of ARs is not only of great significance to the understanding of the physical mechanisms of solar…

The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…

Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation, which occur due to a rapid destabilization and reconnection of the magnetic field. While pre-flare signatures and trends have been investigated from magnetic observations prior…

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim to understand the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare…

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems…

Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…

We conduct a post hoc analysis of solar flare predictions made by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model employing data in the form of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) parameters calculated from data in proximity to the…