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Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

Sensitivity analysis informs causal inference by assessing the sensitivity of conclusions to departures from assumptions. The consistency assumption states that there are no hidden versions of treatment and that the outcome arising…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-29 Brian Knaeble , Qinyun Lin , Erich Kummerfeld , Kenneth A. Frank

A fundamental limitation of causal inference in observational studies is that perceived evidence for an effect might instead be explained by factors not accounted for in the primary analysis. Methods for assessing the sensitivity of a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-14 Colin B. Fogarty

Sensitivity analysis for the unconfoundedness assumption is crucial in observational studies. For this purpose, the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) gained popularity recently due to its good interpretability and mathematical properties.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-27 Yao Zhang , Qingyuan Zhao

Causal inference is only valid when its underlying assumptions are satisfied, one of the most central being the ignorability or unconfoundedness assumption. However, this hypothesis is often unrealistic in observational studies, as some…

The assumption of no unmeasured confounders is a critical but unverifiable assumption required for causal inference yet quantitative sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of real-world evidence remains underutilized. The lack of use is…

The goal of causal mediation analysis, often described within the potential outcomes framework, is to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest along different causal pathways. Using the assumption of sequential…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-09 Lexi Rene , Antonio R. Linero , Elizabeth Slate

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-25 Michael Oberst , Alexander D'Amour , Minmin Chen , Yuyan Wang , David Sontag , Steve Yadlowsky

In observational studies, the observed association between an exposure and outcome of interest may be distorted by unobserved confounding. Causal sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the robustness of observed associations to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Rui Hu , Ted Westling

Background: The E-value has become widely used for assessing robustness to unmeasured confounding in observational studies, but the original framework was developed for single time-point exposure-outcome settings. This study extends the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-03-02 Md. Niamul Islam Sium

Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-13 Mingzhang Yin , Claudia Shi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Causal understanding is a fundamental goal of evidence-based medicine. When randomization is impossible, causal inference methods allow the estimation of treatment effects from retrospective analysis of observational data. However, such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-06 Samuel Lee , Zach Wood-Doughty

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna

A key objective of decomposition analysis is to identify a factor (the 'mediator') contributing to disparities in an outcome between social groups. In decomposition analysis, a scholarly interest often centers on estimating how much the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-27 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee , Shujie Ma

Robust decision making involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and is often used in critical domains such as healthcare, supply chains, and finance. Causality plays a crucial role in decision-making as it predicts the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-23 Saideep Nannapaneni , Joseph Sakaya , Kyle Caron , Pedro HM Albuquerque , Zaid Tashman

This paper proposes a general multiple imputation approach for analyzing large-scale data with missing values. An imputation model is derived from a joint distribution induced by a latent variable model, which can flexibly capture…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-26 Siliang Zhang , Yunxiao Chen , Jouni Kuha

Unmeasured confounding is a key challenge for causal inference. In this paper, we establish a framework for unmeasured confounding adjustment with negative control variables. A negative control outcome is associated with the confounder but…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-09 Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Yilin Li , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

When individuals participating in a randomized trial differ with respect to the distribution of effect modifiers compared compared with the target population where the trial results will be used, treatment effect estimates from the trial…

Randomized controlled trials (RCT's) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-08 Melody Huang

We introduce the BREASE framework for the Bayesian analysis of randomized controlled trials with a binary treatment and a binary outcome. Approaching the problem from a causal inference perspective, we propose parameterizing the likelihood…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-26 Nicholas J. Irons , Carlos Cinelli