相关论文: The Testing Multiplier: Fear vs Containment

Major advances in public health have resulted from disease prevention. However, prevention of a new infectious disease by vaccination or pharmaceuticals is made difficult by the slow process of vaccine and drug development. We propose an…

Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…

This work proposes an augmented variant of DebtRank with uncertainty intervals as a method to investigate and assess systemic risk in financial networks, in a context of incomplete data. The algorithm is tested against a default contagion…

The group testing approach that achieves significant cost reduction over the individual testing approach has received a lot of interest lately for massive testing of COVID-19. Many studies simply assume samples mixed in a group are…

Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with…

We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…

There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing the spread of diseases like the SARS-CoV-2 infection using stochastic models. These models are typically analyzed quantitatively and are not often subject to validation using formal…

In pandemics or epidemics, public health authorities need to rapidly test a large number of individuals, both to determine the line of treatment as well as to know the spread of infection to plan containment, mitigation and future…

We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears…

This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…

Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…

Observed gonorrhea case rates (number of positive tests per 100,000 individuals) increased by 75 percent in the United States between 2009 and 2017, predominantly among men. However, testing recommendations by the Centers for Disease…

Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of…

There is a growing proportion of people with several disease conditions ("multimorbidity"), placing increasing demands on healthcare systems. One hypothesis is that clusters of diseases may arise from shared underlying disease processes…

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread rapidly across the world, leading to enormous amounts of human death and economic loss. Until definitive preventive or curative measures are developed, policies regarding testing,…

Survival competing risks models are very useful for studying the incidence of diseases whose occurrence competes with other possible diseases or health conditions. These models perform properly when working with terminal events, such as…

Due to the variety of corporate risks in turmoil markets and the consequent financial distress especially in COVID-19 time, this paper investigates corporate resilience and compares different types of resilience that can be potential…

Stratifying factors, like age and gender, can modify the effect of treatments and exposures on risk of a studied outcome. Several effect measures, including the relative risk, hazard ratio, odds ratio, and risk difference, can be used to…

This paper considers a simple model where a social planner can influence the spread-intensity of an infection wave, and, consequently, also the economic activity and population health, through a single parameter. Population health is…