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This paper demonstrates the successful application of Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) to accelerate recommender system development and optimization at Adyen, a global leader in financial payment processing. Facing the limitations of traditional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-22 Alex Egg

An individualized decision rule (IDR) is a decision function that assigns each individual a given treatment based on his/her observed characteristics. Most of the existing works in the literature consider settings with binary or finitely…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-31 Hengrui Cai , Chengchun Shi , Rui Song , Wenbin Lu

Deep learning models have demonstrated promising results in estimating treatment effects (TEE). However, most of them overlook the variations in treatment outcomes among subgroups with distinct characteristics. This limitation hinders their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-31 Seungyeon Lee , Ruoqi Liu , Wenyu Song , Ping Zhang

In reinforcement learning, off-policy evaluation (OPE) is the problem of estimating the expected return of an evaluation policy given a fixed dataset that was collected by running one or more different policies. One of the more empirically…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-31 Brahma S. Pavse , Josiah P. Hanna

Off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) use offline observational data to make better decisions, which is crucial in applications where online experimentation is limited. However, depending entirely on logged data, OPE/L is sensitive to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-19 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Kaiwen Wang , Zhengyuan Zhou

Deep learning-based trajectory prediction models for autonomous driving often struggle with generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, sometimes performing worse than simple rule-based models. To address this limitation, we…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2024-12-23 Jinning Li , Jiachen Li , Sangjae Bae , David Isele

We study the novel problem of future off-policy evaluation (F-OPE) and learning (F-OPL) for estimating and optimizing the future value of policies in non-stationary environments, where distributions vary over time. In e-commerce…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-26 Tatsuhiro Shimizu , Kazuki Kawamura , Takanori Muroi , Yusuke Narita , Kei Tateno , Takuma Udagawa , Yuta Saito

We study distributional off-policy evaluation (OPE), of which the goal is to learn the distribution of the return for a target policy using offline data generated by a different policy. The theoretical foundation of many existing work…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-03-13 Sungee Hong , Zhengling Qi , Raymond K. W. Wong

Bootstrapping provides a flexible and effective approach for assessing the quality of batch reinforcement learning, yet its theoretical property is less understood. In this paper, we study the use of bootstrapping in off-policy evaluation…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-05-24 Botao Hao , Xiang Ji , Yaqi Duan , Hao Lu , Csaba Szepesvári , Mengdi Wang

Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Existing methods are largely limited to point…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-14 Yuchen Ma , Valentyn Melnychuk , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

Methods for sequential decision-making are often built upon a foundational assumption that the underlying decision process is stationary. This limits the application of such methods because real-world problems are often subject to changes…

Computer-aided diagnostics has benefited from the development of deep learning-based computer vision techniques in these years. Traditional supervised deep learning methods assume that the test sample is drawn from the identical…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-07-04 Zesheng Hong , Yubiao Yue , Yubin Chen , Lele Cong , Huanjie Lin , Yuanmei Luo , Mini Han Wang , Weidong Wang , Jialong Xu , Xiaoqi Yang , Hechang Chen , Zhenzhang Li , Sihong Xie

We consider off-policy evaluation and optimization with continuous action spaces. We focus on observational data where the data collection policy is unknown and needs to be estimated. We take a semi-parametric approach where the value…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-07-23 Mert Demirer , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Greg Lewis , Victor Chernozhukov

We study the problem of off-policy critic evaluation in several variants of value-based off-policy actor-critic algorithms. Off-policy actor-critic algorithms require an off-policy critic evaluation step, to estimate the value of the new…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-12-12 Riashat Islam , Raihan Seraj , Samin Yeasar Arnob , Doina Precup

We present a differential machine learning method for zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options under a stochastic-volatility jump-diffusion model. To handle the ultra-short-maturity regime, we express the option price in Black-Scholes form with a…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2026-04-10 Takayuki Sakuma

Using offline observational data for policy evaluation and learning allows decision-makers to evaluate and learn a policy that connects characteristics and interventions. Most existing literature has focused on either discrete treatment…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-01-22 Cheuk Hang Leung , Yiyan Huang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) is considered a fundamental and challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL). This paper focuses on the value estimation of a target policy based on pre-collected data generated from a possibly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-13 Jiayi Wang , Zhengling Qi , Raymond K. W. Wong

The Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for online prediction of generic (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic processes with irregular (in time) and potentially incomplete (with respect to coordinates) observations. It is a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-29 Florian Krach , Josef Teichmann

Stationary Distribution Correction Estimation (DICE) addresses the mismatch between the stationary distribution induced by a policy and the target distribution required for reliable off-policy evaluation (OPE) and policy optimization.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-11 Woosung Kim , JunHo Seo , Jongmin Lee , Byung-Jun Lee

This short, self-contained article seeks to introduce and survey continuous-time deep learning approaches that are based on neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODEs). It primarily targets readers familiar with ordinary and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-09 Lars Ruthotto