相关论文: Recurrent Conditional Heteroskedasticity

When considering the problem of forecasting a continuous-time stochastic process over an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past, the notion of Autoregressive Hilbert space processes (ARH) arises. This model can be seen as a…

We consider the well-studied problem of predicting the time-varying covariance matrix of a vector of financial returns. Popular methods range from simple predictors like rolling window or exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) to more…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

This paper introduces a multivariate spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on a vec-representation. The model includes instantaneous spatial autoregressive spill-over effects in the conditional…

We introduce a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network (DGNN) architecture for solving conditional $m$-steps ahead forecasting problems in temporal financial networks. The proposed DGNN is validated on simulated data from a temporal financial…

We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…

Temporal data modelling techniques with neural networks are useful in many domain applications, including time-series forecasting and control engineering. This paper aims at developing a recurrent version of stochastic configuration…

It is now widely accepted that volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect in order to to model the dynamics of daily financial returns.We suggest a new class of multivariate power transformed asymmetric models. It…

Stochastic variational inference algorithms are derived for fitting various heteroskedastic time series models. We examine Gaussian, t, and skew-t response GARCH models and fit these using Gaussian variational approximating densities. We…

A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

Improvements in data acquisition and processing techniques have lead to an almost continuous flow of information for financial data. High resolution tick data are available and can be quite conveniently described by a continuous time…

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

Rough volatility models are very appealing because of their remarkable fit of both historical and implied volatilities. However, due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale nature of the volatility process, there is no simple way to…

We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of COMEX copper futures realized volatility across various high-frequency intervals using both econometric volatility models and deep learning recurrent neural network models. The…

We study the behavior of a real-valued and unobservable process (Y_t) under an extreme event of a related process (X_t) that is observable. Our analysis is motivated by the well-known GARCH model which represents two such sequences, i.e.…

This paper introduces a novel Ito diffusion process to model high-frequency financial data, which can accommodate low-frequency volatility dynamics by embedding the discrete-time non-linear exponential GARCH structure with log-integrated…

With latent variables, stochastic recurrent models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in modeling sound-wave sequence. However, opposite results are also observed in other domains, where standard recurrent networks often outperform…

Bayesian inference for fractionally integrated exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (FIEGARCH) models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is described. A simulation study is presented to access the…

We compare systematically several classes of stochastic volatility models of stock market fluctuations. We show that the long-time return distribution is either Gaussian or develops a power-law tail, while the short-time return distribution…