相关论文: Contact tracing in configuration models

In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads…

Contagion processes, representing the spread of infectious diseases, information, or social behaviors, are often schematized as taking place on networks, which encode for instance the interactions between individuals. The impact of the…

We determine the distributions of some random variables related to a simple model of an epidemic with contact tracing and cluster isolation. This enables us to apply general limit theorems for super-critical Crump-Mode-Jagers branching…

In a randomized study, leveraging covariates related to the outcome (e.g. disease status) may produce less variable estimates of the effect of exposure. For contagion processes operating on a contact network, transmission can only occur…

The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…

Most researches on adaptive networks mainly concentrate on the properties of steady state, but neglect transient dynamics. In this study, we pay attention to the emergence of community structures in transient process and the effects of…

We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…

We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…

In the first part of this paper, we review old and new results about the influence of host population heterogeneity on (various characteristics of) epidemic outbreaks. In the second part we highlight a modelling issue that so far has…

Network epidemic simulation holds the promise of enabling fine-grained understanding of epidemic behavior, beyond that which is possible with coarse-grained compartmental models. Key inputs to these epidemic simulations are the networks…

Background: In settings where proof-of-principle trials have succeeded but the effectiveness of different forms of implementation remains uncertain, trials that not only generate information about intervention effects but also provide…

Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are…

Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease…

The spread of an infectious disease can be promoted by previous infections with other pathogens. This cooperative effect can give rise to violent outbreaks, reflecting the presence of an abrupt epidemic transition. As for other diffusive…

Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…

Whenever possible, the efficacy of a new treatment, such as a drug or behavioral intervention, is investigated by randomly assigning some individuals to a treatment condition and others to a control condition, and comparing the outcomes…

Contact tracing data collected from disease outbreaks has received relatively little attention in the epidemic modelling literature because it is thought to be unreliable: infection sources might be wrongly attributed, or data might be…

The isolation of infectious individuals is a key measure of public health for the control of communicable diseases. However, involving a strong perturbation of daily life, it often causes psychosocial distress, and severe financial and…