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Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

Monte Carlo (MC) dropout is a simple and efficient ensembling method that can improve the accuracy and confidence calibration of high-capacity deep neural network models. However, MC dropout is not as effective as more compute-intensive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-10 Zhilu Zhang , Vianne R. Gao , Mert R. Sabuncu

Neuronal ensemble inference is one of the significant problems in the study of biological neural networks. Various methods have been proposed for ensemble inference from their activity data taken experimentally. Here we focus on Bayesian…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2020-03-30 Shun Kimura , Koujin Takeda

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-21 Sohail Reddy , Hillary Fairbanks

Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-01-21 Zheng Wei , Erin M. Conlon

There is a tension between robustness and efficiency when designing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms. Here we focus on robustness with respect to tuning parameters, showing that more sophisticated algorithms tend to be…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-05-12 Samuel Livingstone , Giacomo Zanella

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-11-05 Jiarui Du , Zhijian He

Markov chain Monte Calro methods (MCMC) are commonly used in Bayesian statistics. In the last twenty years, many results have been established for the calculation of the exact convergence rate of MCMC methods. We introduce another rate of…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-02-17 Kengo Kamatani

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-06-29 Xinzhu Liang , Shangda Yang , Simon L. Cotter , Kody J. H. Law

Statistical inference methods are fundamentally important in machine learning. Most state-of-the-art inference algorithms are variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or variational inference (VI). However, both methods struggle with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-17 Yichuan Zhang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires to evaluate the full data likelihood at different parameter values iteratively and is often computationally infeasible for large data sets. In this paper, we propose to approximate the log-likelihood…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-05-26 Guanyu Hu , HaiYing Wang

Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…

量子物理 · 物理学 2026-01-29 Wenxuan Zhang , Dingzu Wang , Dario Poletti

We introduce an approach for efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for challenging high-dimensional distributions in sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). The core innovation involves using hierarchical prior-normalizing transport…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-05-30 Jan Glaubitz , Youssef Marzouk

We develop clustering procedures for longitudinal trajectories based on a continuous-time hidden Markov model (CTHMM) and a generalized linear observation model. Specifically in this paper, we carry out finite and infinite mixture…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-08 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , David L. Buckeridge

I introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme in which sampling from a distribution with density pi(x) is done using updates operating on an "ensemble" of states. The current state x is first stochastically mapped to an ensemble,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2011-01-04 Radford M. Neal

We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or Population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time…

It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya

We introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms based on numerical approximations of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes obtained with the framework of splitting schemes. We present unadjusted as well as adjusted algorithms,…

概率论 · 数学 2025-11-04 Andrea Bertazzi , Paul Dobson , Pierre Monmarché

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are essential tools in computational statistics for sampling from unnormalised probability distributions, but can be fragile when targeting high-dimensional, multimodal, or complex target…