相关论文: A surrogate-based optimal likelihood function for …

A common approach to assess the performance of fire insulation panels is the component additive method (CAM). The parameters of the CAM are based on the temperature-dependent thermal material properties of the panels. These material…

In this work we explore surrogate models to optimize plasma enhanced atomic layer deposition (PEALD) in high aspect ratio features. In plasma-based processes such as PEALD and atomic layer etching, surface recombination can dominate the…

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Regression-based optimal fingerprinting techniques for climate change detection and attribution require the estimation of the forced signal as well as the internal variability covariance matrix in order to distinguish between their…

Computational models provide crucial insights into complex biological processes such as cancer evolution, but their mechanistic nature often makes them nonlinear and parameter-rich, complicating calibration. We systematically evaluate…

The present paper proposes a Bayesian framework for inverse problems that seamlessly integrates optimization and inversion to enable rapid surrogate modeling, accurate parameter inference, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Bayesian…

Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical…

Reliable models of the thermodynamic properties of materials are critical for industrially relevant applications that require a good understanding of equilibrium phase diagrams, thermal and chemical transport, and microstructure evolution.…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

The complex and computationally expensive nature of landscape evolution models pose significant challenges in the inference and optimisation of unknown parameters. Bayesian inference provides a methodology for estimation and uncertainty…

Any experiment with climate models relies on a potentially large set of spatio-temporal boundary conditions. These can represent both the initial state of the system and/or forcings driving the model output throughout the experiment. Whilst…

An understanding of how input parameter uncertainty in the numerical simulation of physical models leads to simulation output uncertainty is a challenging task. Common methods for quantifying output uncertainty, such as performing a grid or…

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial and error endeavor, without full transparency of the underlying physics, and with user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we…

Calibrating the urban underlying surface parameters is crucial for urban flood simulation. We formulate the parameter calibration problem into an optimization problem within the Bayesian framework using the maximum likelihood principle. We…

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models is required for model predictive control and characterization of building energy performance. In these applications, the uncertainty assessment of the parameter estimates is decisive; this…

Plasma-terminating disruptions in future fusion reactors may result in conversion of the initial current to a relativistic runaway electron beam. Validated predictive tools are required to optimize the scenarios and mitigation actuators to…

This work develops a multiphase thermomechanical model of porous silica aerogel and implements an uncertainty analysis framework consisting of the Sobol methods for global sensitivity analyses and Bayesian inference using a set of…

In topology optimization of compliant mechanisms, the specific placement of boundary conditions strongly affects the resulting material distribution and performance of the design. At the same time, the most effective locations of the loads…

Calibration or parameter identification is used with computational mechanics models related to observed data of the modeled process to find model parameters such that good similarity between model prediction and observation is achieved. We…