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The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…

Frequentist robust variable selection has been extensively investigated in high-dimensional regression. Despite success, developing the corresponding statistical inference procedures remains a challenging task. Recently, tackling this…

We develop a Bayesian approach to estimate weight matrices in spatial autoregressive (or spatial lag) models. Datasets in regional economic literature are typically characterized by a limited number of time periods T relative to spatial…

Low total fertility rates throughout the world have lead to concerns about economic growth, military security, international political power, environment impacts, and quality of life. Overall total fertility rates of today's societies are…

This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical model to characterize the relationship between birth weight and maternal pre-eclampsia across gestation at a large maternity hospital in urban Uganda. Key scientific questions we investigate…

The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted…

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

We propose a novel sparse spatiotemporal dynamic generalized linear model for efficient inference and prediction of bicycle count data. Assuming Poisson distributed counts with spacetime-varying rates, we model the log-rate using…

Neonatal death is still a concerning reality for underdeveloped and even some developed countries. Worldwide data indicate that 26.693 babies out of 1,000 births die, according to Macro Trades. To reduce this number, early prediction of…

A novel statistical method is proposed and investigated for estimating a heavy tailed density under mild smoothness assumptions. Statistical analyses of heavy-tailed distributions are susceptible to the problem of sparse information in the…

Advances in sensing technology have made it possible to collect large volumes of high-dimensional time-series data. In fields like genetics and neuroscience, key questions concern whether directed relationships between variables can be…

High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for…

Objective: To exploit state variations in infant mortality, identify diagnoses that contributed to reduction of the infant mortality rate (IMR), and examine factors associated with preterm related mortality rate (PMR). Methods: Using linked…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

In Bayesian statistics, horseshoe prior has attracted increasing attention as an approach to the sparse estimation. The estimation accuracy of compressed sensing with the horseshoe prior is evaluated by statistical mechanical method. It is…

The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico since 2000 makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. From 2000 to 2021 the TFR declined from 2.1 to 0.9 children per woman, one of the lowest…

The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…