相关论文: Incorporating Dynamic Flight Network in SEIR to Mo…

In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to…

The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…

The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of the Republic of Croatia. Using the official public information on the number of confirmed infected, recovered…

COVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. Till date, well tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted…

The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…

In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…

We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of…

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…

The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment…

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…

We provide an overview of the methods that can be used for prediction under uncertainty and data fitting of dynamical systems, and of the fundamental challenges that arise in this context. The focus is on SIR-like models, that are being…

Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…

Predicting Pandemic evolution involves complex modeling challenges, often requiring detailed discrete mathematics executed on large volumes of epidemiological data. Differential equations have the advantage of offering smooth, well-behaved…

Epidemiological models are the mathematical models that capture the dynamics of epidemics. The spread of the virus has two routes - exogenous and endogenous. The exogenous spread is from outside the population under study, and endogenous…

We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…

We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…

The patterns of human mobility play a key role in the spreading of infectious diseases and thus represent a key ingredient of epidemic modeling and forecasting. Unfortunately, as the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted, for the…

In this article, we consider a dynamic epidemiology model for the spread of the COVID-19 infection. Starting from the classical SEIR model, the model is modified so as to better describe characteristic features of the underlying pathogen…