相关论文: Comment on Glenn Shafer's "Testing by betting"

Feedback has a powerful influence on learning, but it is also expensive to provide. In large classes, it may even be impossible for instructors to provide individualized feedback. Peer assessment has received attention lately as a way of…

In this paper, we introduce the models of permutations with bias, which are random permutations of a set, biased by some preference values. We present a new parametric test, together with an efficient way to calculate its p-value. The final…

Testing for dependence has been a well-established component of spatial statistical analyses for decades. In particular, several popular test statistics have desirable properties for testing for the presence of spatial autocorrelation in…

We establish a general formula for the distribution of the score in table tennis. We use this formula to derive the probability distribution (and hence the expectation and variance) of the number of rallies necessary to achieve any given…

This paper develops a model-free sequential test for conditional independence. The proposed test allows researchers to analyze an incoming i.i.d. data stream with any arbitrary dependency structure, and safely conclude whether a feature is…

In this paper, a problem of testing is discussed when the samples have been drawn from the normal distribution. The study of hypothesis testing is also extended to Baye's set up.

In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…

Unfortunately, the article "A Comparative Study to Benchmark Cross-project Defect Prediction Approaches" has a problem in the statistical analysis which was pointed out almost immediately after the pre-print of the article appeared online.…

Notes for a Course on Probability and Statistics: L1: Elements of Probability; L2: Bayesian Inference; L3: Monte Carlo Methods

There are phenomena that cannot be measured without subjective testing. However, subjective testing is a complex issue with many influencing factors. These interplay to yield either precise or incorrect results. Researchers require a tool…

We propose a way of extracting and aggregating per-move evaluations from sets of Go game records. The evaluations capture different aspects of the games such as played patterns or statistic of sente/gote sequences. Using machine learning…

Discussion on "Sparse graphs using exchangeable random measures" by F. Caron and E. B. Fox. In this discussion we contribute to the analysis of the GGP model as compared to the Erdos-Renyi (ER) and the preferential attachment (AB) models,…

Testing by betting has been a cornerstone of the game-theoretic statistics literature. One bets against the null hypothesis, and the accumulated wealth $W_t$ quantifies the evidence against the null hypothesis after $t$ rounds, and the null…

The customary use of P-values in scientific research has been attacked as being ill-conceived, and the utility of P-values has been derided. This paper reviews common misconceptions about P-values and their alleged deficits as indices of…

This is a note on MacPherson's Chern class for algebraic stacks, based on a previous paper of the author [arXiv:math/0407348]. We also discuss other additive characteristic classes in the same manner.

It is an important inferential problem to test no association between two binary variables based on data. Tests based on the sample odds ratio are commonly used. We bring in a competing test based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. In…

This is a survey paper of Shelah's pcf theory. In this part the theory is developed up to the pcf theorem.

This article is a prologue to the article "Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling 'Theory' of Financial Markets for Practitioners and Theorists." It presents important background for that article --- why gambling is important, even…

Testing is a vital part of software development, and spreadsheets are like any other software in this respect. This paper discusses the testing of spreadsheets in the light of one practitioner's experience. It considers the concept of…

This paper suggests a new interpretation of the Dempster-Shafer theory in terms of probabilistic interpretation of plausibility. A new rule of combination of independent evidence is shown and its preservation of interpretation is…