相关论文: Comment on Glenn Shafer's "Testing by betting"

Score-based tests have been used to study parameter heterogeneity across many types of statistical models. This chapter describes a new self-normalization approach for score-based tests of mixed models, which addresses situations where…

In this paper, we consider the problem of making skeptical inferences for the multi-label ranking problem. We assume that our uncertainty is described by a convex set of probabilities (i.e. a credal set), defined over the set of labels.…

This paper describes problems with the current way we compare the diversity of different recommendation lists in offline experiments. We illustrate the problems with a case study. We propose the Sudden Death score as a new and better way of…

This article explains, and discusses the merits of, three approaches for analyzing the certainty with which statistical results can be extrapolated beyond the data gathered. Sometimes it may be possible to use more than one of these…

Cricket betting is a multi-billion dollar market. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for models that can predict the outcomes of games and beat the odds provided by bookers. The aim of this study was to investigate to what degree it is…

For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies…

Unlike other major professional sports, American football lacks comprehensive statistical ratings for player evaluation that are both reproducible and easily interpretable in terms of game outcomes. Existing methods for player evaluation in…

This paper is concerned with a comparison of van der Waerden's and Wilcoxon's scores.

Competitor rating systems for head-to-head games are typically used to measure playing strength from game outcomes. Ratings computed from these systems are often used to select top competitors for elite events, for pairing players of…

In a recent paper [T. C. Ralph, W. J. Munro, R. E. S. Polkinghorne, Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 2035 (2000)], the authors propose a test for Bell's inequalities based on quadrature measurements for a correlated parametric source. We present here a…

This paper explores a novel application of textual semantic similarity to user-preference representation for rating prediction. The approach represents a user's preferences as a graph of textual snippets from review text, where the edges…

Discussion of "On the Birnbaum Argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle" by Deborah G. Mayo [arXiv:1302.7021].

We describe a statistical hypothesis test for the presence of a signal based on the likelihood ratio statistic. We derive the test for a special case of interest. We study extensions of the test to cases where there are multiple channels…

This note proposes a method, which can be applied to searches and more in general to any cross section measurement, to maximize the analysis sensitivity.

Likelihood ratio tests are intuitively appealing. Nevertheless, a number of examples are known in which they perform very poorly. The present paper discusses a large class of situations in which this is the case, and analyzes just how…

Hypothesis tests are a crucial statistical tool for data mining and are the workhorse of scientific research in many fields. Here we present a differentially private analogue of the classic Wilcoxon signed-rank hypothesis test, which is…

The rapid advancements in generative artificial intelligence have opened up new avenues for enhancing various aspects of research, including the design and evaluation of survey questionnaires. However, the recent pioneering applications…

Frank Porter has recently posted a review of "Confidence intervals for the Poisson distribution" (arXiv:2509.02852). The long, diverse history of such intervals is closely related to that of confidence intervals for the parameter of the…

This paper deals with a new measure of the influence of each feature on the response variable in classification problems, accounting for potential dependencies among certain feature subsets. Within this framework, we consider a sample of…

This book is written to offer a humble, but unified, treatment of e-values in hypothesis testing. It is organized into three parts: Fundamental Concepts, Core Ideas, and Advanced Topics. The first part includes four chapters that introduce…