相关论文: Criteria for projected discovery and exclusion sen…
Recently it has been proposed, in the context of experiments designed to resolve the neutrino mass hierarchy, to use the average posterior probability of one of the hypotheses as a measure of sensitivity of future experiments. This has led…
We propose a method to estimate the probability of new physics discovery in future high energy physics experiments. Physics simulation gives both the average numbers $<N_b>$ of background and $<N_s>$ of signal events. We find that the…
We describe a method for estimation of the discovery potential on new physics in planned experiments. The effective significance of signal for given probability of observation is proposed for planned experiments instead of the usual…
Background channels with their expected strength and uncertainty levels are usually known in searches of novel phenomena prior to the experiments are conducted at their design stage. We quantitatively study the projected sensitivities in…
The sample median is often used in statistical analyses of physical or astronomical data wherein a central value must be found from samples polluted by elements which do not belong to the population of interest or when the underlying…
Within the framework of likelihood-based statistical tests for high energy physics measurements, we derive generalized expressions for estimating the statistical significance of discovery using the asymptotic approximations of Wilks and…
In this paper, we present a consistent procedure to assess the significance of gravitational wave events observed by laser interferometric gravitational wave detectors based on the background distribution of detection statistic. We propose…
We discuss the traditional criterion for discovery in Particle Physics of requiring a significance corresponding to at least 5 sigma; and whether a more nuanced approach might be better.
P-values are widely used in both the social and natural sciences to quantify the statistical significance of observed results. The recent surge of big data research has made the p-value an even more popular tool to test the significance of…
In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a…
Increased availability of data and accessibility of computational tools in recent years have created unprecedented opportunities for scientific research driven by statistical analysis. Inherent limitations of statistics impose constrains on…
A method is described, which computes from an observed sample of events upper limits for production rates of particles, or, in case of appearance of a signal, the probability for an upwards fluctuation of the background. For any candidate,…
We describe likelihood-based statistical tests for use in high energy physics for the discovery of new phenomena and for construction of confidence intervals on model parameters. We focus on the properties of the test procedures that allow…
This paper develops a novel nonparametric significance test based on a tailored nonparametric-type projected weighting function that exhibits appealing theoretical and numerical properties. We derive the asymptotic properties of the…
In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find…
Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect ("on" measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free…
The so called Li&Ma formula is still the most frequently used method for estimating the significance of observations carried out by Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. In this work a straightforward extension of the method for point…
Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…
We define some appropriate statistical quantities that indicate the physical significance (reliability) of confidence intervals in the framework of both Frequentist and Bayesian statistical theories. We consider the expectation value of the…
In many fields of research null hypothesis significance tests and p values are the accepted way of assessing the degree of certainty with which research results can be extrapolated beyond the sample studied. However, there are very serious…