相关论文: Hierarchical Marketing Mix Models with Sign Constr…

Hierarchical forecasting (HF) is needed in many situations in the supply chain (SC) because managers often need different levels of forecasts at different levels of SC to make a decision. Top-Down (TD), Bottom-Up (BU) and Optimal…

The task of estimating a matrix given a sample of observed entries is known as the \emph{matrix completion problem}. Most works on matrix completion have focused on recovering an unknown real-valued low-rank matrix from a random sample of…

We present a polyphonic MIDI score-following algorithm capable of following performances with arbitrary repeats and skips, based on a probabilistic model of musical performances. It is attractive in practical applications of score following…

The main purpose of this paper is to facilitate the communication between the Analytic, Probabilistic and Algorithmic communities. We present a proof of convergence of the Hamiltonian (Hybrid) Monte Carlo algorithm from the point of view of…

Many modern applications collect highly imbalanced categorical data, with some categories relatively rare. Bayesian hierarchical models combat data sparsity by borrowing information, while also quantifying uncertainty. However, posterior…

We obtain several quantitative bounds on the mixing properties of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for a strongly log-concave target distribution $\pi$ on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$, showing that HMC mixes quickly in this setting. One of…

We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

We present a heuristic strategy for marginal MAP (MMAP) queries in graphical models. The algorithm is based on a reduction of the task to a polynomial number of marginal inference computations. Given an input evidence, the marginals mass…

We propose Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo (AIMM), a novel approach to sample from challenging probability distributions defined on a general state-space. While adaptive MCMC methods usually update a parametric…

Since the rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) a couple of years ago, researchers in metaheuristics (MHs) have wondered how to use their power in a beneficial way within their algorithms. This paper introduces a novel approach that…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient method of simulating smooth distributions and has motivated the widely used No-U-turn Sampler (NUTS) and software Stan. We build on NUTS and the technique of "unbiased sampling" to design HMC…

This paper uses stochastic dominance principles to construct upper and lower sample path bounds for Hidden Markov Model (HMM) filters. Given a HMM, by using convex optimization methods for nuclear norm minimization with copositive…

Understanding individual customers' sensitivities to prices, promotions, brands, and other marketing mix elements is fundamental to a wide swath of marketing problems. An important but understudied aspect of this problem is the dynamic…

In a clinical trial of a treatment for alcoholism, a common response variable of interest is the number of alcoholic drinks consumed by each subject each day, or an ordinal version of this response, with levels corresponding to abstinence,…

We give lower bounds on the performance of two of the most popular sampling methods in practice, the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and multi-step Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with a leapfrog integrator, when applied to…

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…

This paper presents the constrained Hybrid Metaheuristic (cHM) algorithm as a general framework for continuous optimisation. Unlike many existing metaheuristics that are tailored to specific function classes or problem domains, cHM is…

Hamiltonian Flow Monte Carlo(HFMC) methods have been implemented in engineering, biology and chemistry. HFMC makes large gradient based steps to rapidly explore the state space. The application of the Hamiltonian dynamics allows to estimate…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician's toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis-Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…