相关论文: Forecasting with Multiple Seasonality

In this paper, we propose a new procedure for unconditional and conditional forecasting in agent-based models. The proposed algorithm is based on the application of amortized neural networks and consists of two steps. The first step…

Time series forecasting with limited data is a challenging yet critical task. While transformers have achieved outstanding performances in time series forecasting, they often require many training samples due to the large number of…

This paper develops an approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems by integrating probabilistic input forecasting with physics-informed output prediction. Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems is important for…

We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…

Producing probabilistic guarantee for several steps of a predicted signal follow a temporal logic defined behavior has its rising importance in monitoring. In this paper, we derive a method to compute the joint probability distribution of…

Developing models and algorithms to predict nonstationary time series is a long standing statistical problem. It is crucial for many applications, in particular for fashion or retail industries, to make optimal inventory decisions and avoid…

Probabilistic forecasting of time series is an important matter in many applications and research fields. In order to draw conclusions from a probabilistic forecast, we must ensure that the model class used to approximate the true…

By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and…

In this paper, we investigate meta-learning for combining forecasts generated by models of different types. While typical approaches for combining forecasts involve simple averaging, machine learning techniques enable more sophisticated…

Different disciplines pursue the aim to develop models which characterize certain phenomena as accurately as possible. Climatology is a prime example, where the temporal evolution of the climate is modeled. In order to compare and improve…

Weather forecasting benefits us in various ways from farmers in cultivation and harvesting their crops to airlines to schedule their flights. Weather forecasting is a challenging task due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Therefore…

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Forecasting anomalies (anomaly prediction) in multivariate time series from different real-world, dynamic, and complex systems is vital for preempting critical failures, leading to a substantial minimization in operational costs and human…

Predicting human motion behavior in a crowd is important for many applications, ranging from the natural navigation of autonomous vehicles to intelligent security systems of video surveillance. All the previous works model and predict the…

Wind power ramp events are difficult to forecast due to strong variability, multi-scale dynamics, and site-specific meteorological effects. This paper proposes an event-first, frequency-aware forecasting paradigm that directly predicts ramp…

Probabilistic time-series models become popular in the forecasting field as they help to make optimal decisions under uncertainty. Despite the growing interest, a lack of thorough analysis hinders choosing what is worth applying for the…

Combining forecast from different models has shown to perform better than single forecast in most time series. To improve the quality of forecast we can go for combining forecast. We study the effect of decomposing a series into multiple…

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Many methods for time-series forecasting are known in classical statistics, such as autoregression, moving averages, and exponential smoothing. The DeepAR framework is a novel, recent approach for time-series forecasting based on deep…