相关论文: Forecasting with Multiple Seasonality

We study the quadratic prediction error method -- i.e., nonlinear least squares -- for a class of time-varying parametric predictor models satisfying a certain identifiability condition. While this method is known to asymptotically achieve…

In this paper we investigate forecasting coevolving time series that feature intricate dependencies and nonstationary dynamics by using an LLM Large Language Models approach We propose a novel modeling approach named ContextAware ARLLM…

Hierarchical time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making in various domains while presenting significant challenges for modelling as they involve multiple levels of aggregation, constraints, and availability of…

A reliable long-term time-series forecaster is highly demanded in practice but comes across many challenges such as low computational and memory footprints as well as robustness against dynamic learning environments. This paper proposes…

In this paper, we develop new multiscale methods to test qualitative hypotheses about the regression function m in a nonparametric regression model with fixed design points and time series errors. In time series applications, m represents a…

A recommender system learns to predict the user-specific preference or intention over many items simultaneously for all users, making personalized recommendations based on a relatively small number of observations. One central issue is how…

We propose a new ensemble prediction method, Random Subset Averaging (RSA), tailored for settings with many covariates, particularly in the presence of strong correlations. RSA constructs candidate models via binomial random subset strategy…

Modeling multi-agent systems requires understanding how agents interact. Such systems are often difficult to model because they can involve a variety of types of interactions that layer together to drive rich social behavioral dynamics.…

In this paper, we develop a distributionally robust model predictive control framework for the control of wind farms with the goal of power tracking and mechanical stress reduction of the individual wind turbines. We introduce an ARMA model…

The standard approach when studying atmospheric circulation regimes and their dynamics is to use a hard regime assignment, where each atmospheric state is assigned to the regime it is closest to in distance. However, this may not always be…

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across various domains, but it presents significant challenges. Recent studies have explored image-driven approaches using computer vision models to address these challenges,…

Forecasting of time series in continuous systems becomes an increasingly relevant task due to recent developments in IoT and 5G. The popular forecasting model ARIMA is applied to a large variety of applications for decades. An online…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a well-known method used widely on sequence learning and time series prediction. In this paper we deployed stacked LSTM model in an application of weather forecasting. We propose a 2-layer spatio-temporal…

We propose an online algorithm for tracking a multidimensional time-varying parameter of a time series, which is also allowed to be a predictable process with respect to the underlying time series. The algorithm is driven by a gain…

The literature on time series of functional data has focused on processes of which the probabilistic law is either constant over time or constant up to its second-order structure. Especially for long stretches of data it is desirable to be…

The simulation of the continuation of a given time series is useful for many practical applications. But no standard procedure for this task is suggested in the literature. It is therefore demonstrated how to use the seasonal ARIMA process…

Forecasting future outcomes from recent time series data is not easy, especially when the future data are different from the past (i.e. time series are under temporal drifts). Existing approaches show limited performances under data drifts,…

Time series forecasting presents significant challenges in real-world applications across various domains. Building upon the decomposition of the time series, we enhance the architecture of machine learning models for better multivariate…