相关论文: Exact Bayesian inference for diffusion driven Cox …

In this paper, we propose a doubly stochastic spatial point process model with both aggregation and repulsion. This model combines the ideas behind Strauss processes and log Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood for this model is not…

This paper introduces a new approach to inferring the second order properties of a multivariate log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) with a complex intensity function. We assume a semi-parametric model for the multivariate intensity function…

There are few inference methods available to accommodate covariate-dependent anisotropy in point process models. To address this, we propose an extended Bayesian MCMC approach for Neyman-Scott cluster processes. We focus on anisotropy and…

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

We consider the issue of reporting the result of search experiment in the most unbiased and efficient way, i.e. in a way which allows an easy interpretation and combination of results and which do not depend on whether the experimenters…

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

In this article we consider static Bayesian parameter estimation for partially observed diffusions that are discretely observed. We work under the assumption that one must resort to discretizing the underlying diffusion process, for…

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

This paper proposes a new approach for Bayesian and maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stationary Gaussian processes observed on a large lattice with missing values. We propose an MCMC approach for Bayesian inference, and a Monte…

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational…

We describe a new, surprisingly simple algorithm, that simulates exact sample paths of a class of stochastic differential equations. It involves rejection sampling and, when applicable, returns the location of the path at a random…

We introduce an efficient MCMC sampling scheme to perform Bayesian inference in the M/G/1 queueing model given only observations of interdeparture times. Our MCMC scheme uses a combination of Gibbs sampling and simple Metropolis updates…

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…

Diffusion models have recently driven significant breakthroughs in generative modeling. While state-of-the-art models produce high-quality samples on average, individual samples can still be low quality. Detecting such samples without human…

Dempster-Shafer theory of imprecise probabilities has proved useful to incorporate both nonspecificity and conflict uncertainties in an inference mechanism. The traditional Bayesian approach cannot differentiate between the two, and is…

A recent line of research has exploited pre-trained generative diffusion models as priors for solving Bayesian inverse problems. We contribute to this research direction by designing a sequential Monte Carlo method for linear-Gaussian…

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be…

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…