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Volatility is a natural risk measure in finance as it quantifies the variation of stock prices. A frequently considered problem in mathematical finance is to forecast different estimates of volatility. What makes it promising to use deep…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-09-14 Bernadett Aradi , Gábor Petneházi , József Gáll

Recently there has been significant research on power generation, distribution and transmission efficiency especially in the case of renewable resources. The main objective is reduction of energy losses and this requires improvements on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-17 Stefan Hosein , Patrick Hosein

With the development of the electric power system, the smart grid has become an important part of the smart city. The rational transmission of electric energy and the guarantee of power supply of the smart grid are very important to smart…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-09-04 Zhengxian Chen , Maowei Wang , Conghu Li

Accurate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is critical for market participants to inform trading decisions. Existing studies rely on specific domain features, such as Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and the last…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2026-02-17 Runyao Yu , Ruochen Wu , Yongsheng Han , Jochen L. Cremer

The paper describes the deep learning approach for forecasting non-stationary time series with using time trend correction in a neural network model. Along with the layers for predicting sales values, the neural network model includes a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-25 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Transfer learning is aimed to make use of valuable knowledge in a source domain to help model performance in a target domain. It is particularly important to neural networks, which are very likely to be overfitting. In some fields like…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2016-10-14 Lili Mou , Zhao Meng , Rui Yan , Ge Li , Yan Xu , Lu Zhang , Zhi Jin

Transfer learning aims at improving the performance of target learners on target domains by transferring the knowledge contained in different but related source domains. In this way, the dependence on a large number of target domain data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-24 Fuzhen Zhuang , Zhiyuan Qi , Keyu Duan , Dongbo Xi , Yongchun Zhu , Hengshu Zhu , Hui Xiong , Qing He

Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-15 Xin Lu

Accurate price predictions are essential for market participants in order to optimize their operational schedules and bidding strategies, especially in the current context where electricity prices become more volatile and less predictable…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-09-26 Naga Venkata Sai Jitin Jami , Juraj Kardoš , Olaf Schenk , Harald Köstler

Retailers and major consumers of electricity generally purchase an important percentage of their estimated electricity needs years ahead in the forward market. This long-term electricity procurement task consists of determining when to buy…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2022-06-06 Thibaut Théate , Sébastien Mathieu , Damien Ernst

Power systems operate under uncertainty originating from multiple factors that are impossible to account for deterministically. Distributional forecasting is used to control and mitigate risks associated with this uncertainty. Recent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-07 Slawek Smyl , Boris N. Oreshkin , Paweł Pełka , Grzegorz Dudek

Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-05-19 Arnaud Verstraeten , Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

This study delves into the shift from centralized to decentralized approaches in the electricity industry, with a particular focus on how machine learning (ML) advancements play a crucial role in empowering renewable energy sources and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-25 Mohammad Mohammadi , Ali Mohammadi

Modern deep neural network (DNN) systems are highly configurable with large a number of options that significantly affect their non-functional behavior, for example inference time and energy consumption. Performance models allow to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-04-08 Md Shahriar Iqbal , Lars Kotthoff , Pooyan Jamshidi

In this paper we present a regression based model for day-ahead electricity spot prices. We estimate the considered linear regression model by the lasso estimation method. The lasso approach allows for many possible parameters in the model,…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2016-10-26 Florian Ziel

In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2024-07-11 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Weronika Nitka

Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2023-08-30 Weronika Nitka , Rafał Weron

Stock market prediction has been a classical yet challenging problem, with the attention from both economists and computer scientists. With the purpose of building an effective prediction model, both linear and machine learning tools have…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-08-13 Weiwei Jiang

Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-04-11 Michael Polson , Vadim Sokolov

As a new classification platform, deep learning has recently received increasing attention from researchers and has been successfully applied to many domains. In some domains, like bioinformatics and robotics, it is very difficult to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-08-13 Chuanqi Tan , Fuchun Sun , Tao Kong , Wenchang Zhang , Chao Yang , Chunfang Liu