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Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , Nathan Kallus , David Sontag

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) may suffer from limited scope. In particular, samples may be unrepresentative: some RCTs over- or under- sample individuals with certain characteristics compared to the target population, for which one…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-15 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

In order to evaluate the impact of a policy intervention on a group of units over time, it is important to correctly estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) measure. Due to lack of robustness of the existing procedures of estimating ATE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-20 Sayoni Roychowdhury , Indrila Ganguly , Abhik Ghosh

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-03-18 Saksham Jain , Alex Luedtke

How to deal with missing data in observational studies is a common concern for causal inference. When the covariates are missing at random (MAR), multiple approaches have been provided to help solve the issue. However, if the exposure is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-14 Yuliang Shi , Yeying Zhu , Joel A. Dubin

We revisit the classical causal inference problem of estimating the average treatment effect in the presence of fully observed confounding variables using two-stage semiparametric methods. In existing theoretical studies of methods such as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-23 Steve Yadlowsky

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

This paper studies inference for the local average treatment effect in randomized controlled trials with imperfect compliance where treatment status is determined according to "matched pairs." By "matched pairs," we mean that units are…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-06-28 Yuehao Bai , Hongchang Guo , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard when estimating the average treatment effect. However, they are usually not a random sample from the real-world population because of the inclusion/exclusion rules. Meanwhile, observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-11 Kuan Jiang , Wenjie Hu , Shu Yang , Xinxing Lai , Xiaohua Zhou

In causal inference, a fundamental task is to estimate the effect resulting from a specific treatment, which is often handled with inverse probability weighting. Despite an abundance of attention to the advancement of this task, most…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-30 Kuan-Hsun Wu

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-25 Zhaonan Qu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Jizhou Liu , Guido Imbens

Micro-randomized trials are commonly conducted for optimizing mobile health interventions such as push notifications for behavior change. In analyzing such trials, causal excursion effects are often of primary interest, and their estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-19 Yihan Bao , Lauren Bell , Elizabeth Williamson , Claire Garnett , Tianchen Qian

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik , Yaxuan Huang , Bin Yu

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-22 Lin Ge , Yuzi Zhang , Lance A. Waller , Robert H. Lyles

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard for estimating causal effect, but they may lack external validity when the population eligible to the RCT is substantially different from the target population.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-11 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet , Gaël Varoquaux

Conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation is the de facto gold standard for targeting a treatment to a heterogeneous population. The method estimates treatment effects up to an error $\epsilon > 0$ in each of $M$ different…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-12 Sílvia Casacuberta , Moritz Hardt

We consider the problem of testing for treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies, and propose a nonparametric test based on multisample U-statistics. To account for potential confounders, we use reweighted data where the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-30 Maozhu Dai , Weining Shen , Hal S. Stern

Individual treatment effect (ITE) is often regarded as the ideal target of inference in causal analyses and has been the focus of several recent studies. In this paper, we describe the intrinsic limits regarding what can be learned…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-10 Zhehao Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson