相关论文: Confidence sequences for sampling without replacem…
In 1976, Lai constructed a nontrivial confidence sequence for the mean $\mu$ of a Gaussian distribution with unknown variance $\sigma^2$. Curiously, he employed both an improper (right Haar) mixture over $\sigma$ and an improper (flat)…
Covariate balancing is a popular technique for controlling confounding in observational studies. It finds weights for the treatment group which are close to uniform, but make the group's covariate means (approximately) equal to those of the…
Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, regression parameter \beta = (\beta_1, ..., \beta_p) and independent and identically N(0, \sigma^2) distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is \theta…
Statistical inference of the high-dimensional regression coefficients is challenging because the uncertainty introduced by the model selection procedure is hard to account for. A critical question remains unsettled; that is, is it possible…
This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…
Concentration inequalities for the sample mean, like those due to Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Bentkus, are valid for any sample size but overly conservative, yielding confidence intervals that are unnecessarily wide. The central limit theorem…
A large class of problems in sciences and engineering can be formulated as the general problem of constructing random intervals with pre-specified coverage probabilities for the mean. Wee propose a general approach for statistical inference…
Objectives: Estimation of areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and their differences is a key task in diagnostic studies. We aimed to derive, evaluate, and implement simple sample size formulas for such studies with a…
Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or…
We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and…
The problem of filtering of finite-alphabet stationary ergodic time series is considered. A method for constructing a confidence set for the (unknown) signal is proposed, such that the resulting set has the following properties: First, it…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…
We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door or front-door criteria are applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the standard setting where the training data…
It is well known that it is impossible to construct useful confidence intervals (CIs) about the mean or median of a response $Y$ conditional on features $X = x$ without making strong assumptions about the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$.…
We consider a linear regression model with regression parameter beta =(beta_1, ..., beta_p) and independent and identically N(0, sigma^2)distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is theta = a^T beta where a is a specified…
The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor from prior to posterior odds, is a principled measure of relative evidence for two competing hypotheses. It is naturally suited to sequential data analysis in settings such as clinical trials…
A confidence distribution is a distribution for a parameter of interest based on a parametric statistical model. As such, it serves the same purpose for frequentist statisticians as a posterior distribution for Bayesians, since it allows to…
Consistency models, which were proposed to mitigate the high computational overhead during the sampling phase of diffusion models, facilitate single-step sampling while attaining state-of-the-art empirical performance. When integrated into…
Turing's estimator allows one to estimate the probabilities of outcomes that either do not appear or only rarely appear in a given random sample. We perform a simulation study to understand the finite sample performance of several related…
The properties of the generalized Waring distribution defined on the non negative integers are reviewed. Formulas for its moments and its mode are given. A construction as a mixture of negative binomial distributions is also presented. Then…