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This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2010-11-15 Jason Wyse , Nial Friel

In an empirical Bayesian setting, we provide a new multiple testing method, useful when an additional covariate is available, that influences the probability of each null hypothesis being true. We measure the posterior significance of each…

应用统计 · 统计学 2008-07-30 Egil Ferkingstad , Arnoldo Frigessi , Håvard Rue , Gudmar Thorleifsson , Augustine Kong

The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-01 Alexander J. Gibberd , James D. B. Nelson

Multistage ranking models, including the popular Plackett-Luce distribution (PL), rely on the assumption that the ranking process is performed sequentially, by assigning the positions from the top to the bottom one (forward order). A recent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-17 Cristina Mollica , Luca Tardella

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

In this paper, we aim to design robust estimation techniques based on the compound-Gaussian (CG) process and adapted for calibration of radio interferometers. The motivation beyond this is due to the presence of outliers leading to an…

The multivariate extended skew-normal distribution allows for accommodating raw data which are skewed and heavy tailed, and has at least three appealing statistical properties, namely closure under conditioning, affine transformations, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-06-19 Mathieu Gerber , Florian Pelgrin

A Bayesian multivariate model with a structured covariance matrix for multi-way nested data is proposed. This flexible modeling framework allows for positive and for negative associations among clustered observations, and generalizes the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-27 Stef Baas , Richard J. Boucherie , Jean-Paul Fox

We consider the Bayesian analysis of a few complex, high-dimensional models and show that intuitive priors, which are not tailored to the fine details of the model and the estimated parameters, produce estimators which perform poorly in…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-02-02 Y. Ritov , P. J. Bickel , A. C. Gamst , B. J. K. Kleijn

In this paper, we consider high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models where the true underlying graph is decomposable. A hierarchical $G$-Wishart prior is proposed to conduct a Bayesian inference for the precision matrix and its graph…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-02-18 Kyoungjae Lee , Xuan Cao

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-04-08 Maurizio Filippone , Mark Girolami

Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-19 Duncan K. Foley , Ellis Scharfenaker

Motivated by the need to study the molecular mechanism underlying Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) with the gene expression data collected from both the patients and healthy controls at multiple time points, we propose an innovative method for jointly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-10 Bochao Jia , Faming Liang , the TEDDY Study Group

We consider sampling from a Gibbs distribution by evolving finitely many particles. We propose a preconditioned version of a recently proposed noise-free sampling method, governed by approximating the score function with the numerically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-18 Hong Ye Tan , Stanley Osher , Wuchen Li

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-30 Marco Battiston , Lorenzo Cappello

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

In tests of gravity using gravitational waves (GWs), GW events analyzed are often selected based on specific criteria, particularly the signal-to-noise ratio. However, such event selection can introduce bias into parameter estimation unless…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2025-08-29 Hayato Imafuku , Hiroki Takeda , Atsushi Nishizawa , Daiki Watarai , Kipp Cannon

In this paper, we study modulus of continuity and rate of convergence of series of conditionally sub-Gaussian random fields. This framework includes both classical series representations of Gaussian fields and LePage series representations…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-07-29 Hermine Biermé , Céline Lacaux

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

Unnormalized (or energy-based) models provide a flexible framework for capturing the characteristics of data with complex dependency structures. However, the application of standard Bayesian inference methods has been severely limited…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-11 Naruki Sonobe , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Daichi Mochihashi , Takeru Matsuda