相关论文: Change-point tests for the tail parameter of Long …

We introduce a robust estimator of the location parameter for the change-point in the mean based on the Wilcoxon statistic and establish its consistency for $L_1$ near epoch dependent processes. It is shown that the consistency rate depends…

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace…

The statistical theory of extremes is extended to observations that are non-stationary and not independent. The non-stationarity over time and space is controlled via the scedasis (tail scale) in the marginal distributions. Spatial…

It is empirically established that order flow in the financial markets is positively auto-correlated and can serve as an example of a social system with long-range memory. Nevertheless, widely used long-range memory estimators give varying…

The tail measure of a regularly varying stationary time series has been recently introduced. It is used in this contribution to reconsider certain properties of the tail process and establish new ones. A new formulation of the time change…

For multivariate distributions in the domain of attraction of a max-stable distribution, the tail copula and the stable tail dependence function are equivalent ways to capture the dependence in the upper tail. The empirical versions of…

We introduce a new stochastic order for the tail dependence between random variables. We then study different measures of tail dependence which are monotone in the proposed order, thereby extending various known tail dependence coefficients…

In a common experimental setting, the behaviour of a noisy dynamical system is monitored in response to manipulations of one or more control parameters. Here, we introduce a structured model to describe parametric changes in qualitative…

Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…

The stable tail dependence function provides a full characterization of the extremal dependence structures. Unfortunately, the estimation of the stable tail dependence function often suffers from significant bias, whose scale relates to the…

We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established…

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the…

We study mean change point testing problems for high-dimensional data, with exponentially- or polynomially-decaying tails. In each case, depending on the $\ell_0$-norm of the mean change vector, we separately consider dense and sparse…

This paper introduces a copula-based model for independent but non-identically distributed data with heteroscedastic extremes marginal and changing tail dependence structures. We establish a unified framework for inference by proving the…

The goal of this paper is an exhaustive investigation of the link between the tail measure of a regularly varying time series and its spectral tail process, independently introduced in Owada and Samorodnitsky (2012) and Basrak and Segers…

In this paper, we show how the sampling properties of the Hurst exponent methods of estimation change with the presence of heavy tails. We run extensive Monte Carlo simulations to find out how rescaled range analysis (R/S), multifractal…

Long-range dependence induced by heavy tails is a widely reported feature of internet traffic. Long-range dependence can be defined as the regular variation of the variance of the integrated process, and half the index of regular variation…