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Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Joint modeling of spatially-oriented dependent variables is commonplace in the environmental sciences, where scientists seek to estimate the relationships among a set of environmental outcomes accounting for dependence among these outcomes…

The rich biodiversity of coral reefs in Indonesian waters represents a valuable asset that must be preserved. Rapid climate change and uncontrolled human activities have caused significant degradation of coral reef ecosystems, including…

Citizen science biodiversity data present great opportunities for ecology and conservation across vast spatial and temporal scales. However, the opportunistic nature of these data lacks the sampling structure required by modeling…

Crowdsourcing platforms emerged as popular venues for purchasing human intelligence at low cost for large volume of tasks. As many low-paid workers are prone to give noisy answers, a common practice is to add redundancy by assigning…

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Optimal sampling strategies are critical for surveys of deeper coral reef and shoal systems, due to the significant cost of accessing and field sampling these remote and poorly understood ecosystems. Additionally, well-established standard…

Beliefs are important determinants of an individual's choices and economic outcomes, so understanding how they comove and differ across individuals is of considerable interest. Researchers often rely on surveys that report individual…

For many taxonomic groups, online biodiversity portals used by naturalists and citizen scientists constitute the primary source of distributional information. Over the last decade, site-occupancy models have been advanced as a promising…

In this paper, we propose a general framework for combining evidence of varying quality to estimate underlying binary latent variables in the presence of restrictions imposed to respect the scientific context. The resulting algorithms…

Camera traps have become a core tool in ecological research, enabling large-scale, noninvasive monitoring of wildlife populations and behavior. By automatically recording animals as they pass within view, these devices generate massive…

We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…

Hierarchical probabilistic models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. These models consist of observable and latent variables, which represent the observable data and the underlying…

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective means for performing a number of machine learning tasks such as annotation and labelling of images and other data sets. In most early settings of crowdsourcing, the task involved classification,…

In applied statistics and machine learning, the "gold standards" used for training are often biased and almost always noisy. Dawid and Skene's justifiably popular crowdsourcing model adjusts for rater (coder, annotator) sensitivity and…

Regression is a fundamental prediction task common in data-centric engineering applications that involves learning mappings between continuous variables. In many engineering applications (e.g.\ structural health monitoring), feature-label…

A vast amount of ecological knowledge generated recently has hinged upon the ability of model selection methods to discriminate among various ecological hypotheses. The last decade has seen the rise of Bayesian hierarchical models in…

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

Understanding and predicting human migration patterns is a central challenge in population dynamics research. Traditional physics-inspired gravity and radiation models represent migration flows as functions of attractiveness using…