相关论文: Why are most COVID-19 infection curves linear?

We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 for some selected countries after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan City, China. We estimated the infection rate and the initial infected individuals of COVID-19 by using the officially…

In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…

While several non-pharmacological measures have been implemented for a few months in an effort to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, the disease remains a danger in a number of counties as restrictions…

The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea. The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the…

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

The number of corona virus (COVID-19) infections grows worldwide. In order to create short term predictions to prepare for the extent of the global pandemic we analyze infection data from the top 25 affected countries. It is shown that all…

I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…

COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases…

Anticipating the quantity of new associated or affirmed cases with novel coronavirus ailment 2019 (COVID-19) is critical in the counteraction and control of the COVID-19 flare-up. The new associated cases with COVID-19 information were…

Contact Tracing (CT) is one of the measures taken by government and health officials to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus. In this paper, we investigate its efficacy by developing a compartmental model for assessing its impact on…

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…

Timely prediction of the COVID-19 progression is not possible without a comprehensive understanding of environmental factors that may affect the infection transmissibility. Studies addressing parameters that may influence COVID-19…

We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…

We study the spread of discrete-time epidemics over arbitrary networks for well-known propagation models, namely SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible), SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered), SIRS (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible)…

The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic has been announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Govt. of India has declared a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, to prevent community transmission of…

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China is characterized by a distinctive algebraic, sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…