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Instrumental variables (IV) methods are central to applied microeconomics. While classical approaches assume linear models with constant effects, recent literature has shifted toward the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-15 Tymon Słoczyński , Liyang Sun , S. Derya Uysal

We develop an empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of treatments on outcomes of interest when the treatments are the result of strategic interaction (e.g., bargaining, oligopolistic entry, peer effects). We consider a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-09-04 Jorge Balat , Sukjin Han

The goals in clinical and cohort studies often include evaluation of the association of a time-dependent binary treatment or exposure with a survival outcome. Recently, several impactful studies targeted the association between…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-01-24 Daniel Nevo , Tsuyoshi Hamada , Shuji Ogino , Molin Wang

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-02-08 Sebastian Weber , Andrew Gelman , Daniel Lee , Michael Betancourt , Aki Vehtari , Amy Racine

Covariate adjustment is an approach to improve the precision of trial analyses by adjusting for baseline variables that are prognostic of the primary endpoint. Motivated by the SEARCH Universal HIV Test-and-Treat Trial (2013-2017), we tell…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Laura B. Balzer , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

Matching is a widely used causal inference design that aims to approximate a randomized experiment using observational data by forming matched sets of treated and control units based on similarities in their covariates. Ideally, treated…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-06 Jianan Zhu , Jeffrey Zhang , Zijian Guo , Siyu Heng

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

We consider sequential hypothesis testing between two quantum states using adaptive and non-adaptive strategies. In this setting, samples of an unknown state are requested sequentially and a decision to either continue or to accept one of…

量子物理 · 物理学 2023-03-07 Yonglong Li , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Marco Tomamichel

This paper develops a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests, a recently proposed nonparametric causal regression model that employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and is specifically designed to estimate heterogeneous…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-17 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

In this paper, we develop new methods for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies, focusing on settings with more than two treatment levels under unconfoundedness given pre-treatment variables. We emphasize…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-11 Shu Yang , Guido W. Imbens , Zhanglin Cui , Douglas Faries , Zbigniew Kadziola

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-06 Waverly Wei , Maya Petersen , Mark J van der Laan , Zeyu Zheng , Chong Wu , Jingshen Wang

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

An important aspect of precision medicine focuses on characterizing diverse responses to treatment due to unique patient characteristics, also known as heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), and identifying beneficial subgroups with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-03 Na Bo , Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Erick Forno , Ying Ding

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with machine learning has attracted substantial attention in both academic research and industrial practice. However, the two communities often evaluate models under markedly different conditions.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-26 George Panagopoulos

Non-adherence to medications is a critical concern since nearly half of patients with chronic illnesses do not follow their prescribed medication regimens, leading to increased mortality, costs, and preventable human distress. Amongst stage…

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-02 Chenyang Gu , Michael J. Lopez , Liangyuan Hu

Treatment effect estimation (TEE) is the task of determining the impact of various treatments on patient outcomes. Current TEE methods fall short due to reliance on limited labeled data and challenges posed by sparse and high-dimensional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-07 Ruoqi Liu , Lingfei Wu , Ping Zhang

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to causal inference is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies, such as…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-05-31 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu