相关论文: Enhancing Covid-19 Decision-Making by Creating an …

Decisions in organizations are about evaluating alternatives and choosing the one that would best serve organizational goals. To the extent that the evaluation of alternatives could be formulated as a predictive task with appropriate…

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…

Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a…

The impact of machine learning models on healthcare will depend on the degree of trust that healthcare professionals place in the predictions made by these models. In this paper, we present a method to provide people with clinical expertise…

We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive…

Automated decision systems (ADS) are broadly deployed to inform and support human decision-making across a wide range of consequential settings. However, various context-specific details complicate the goal of establishing meaningful…

This paper proposes a framework based on a causal model of safety upon which effective safety assurance cases for ML-based applications can be built. In doing so, we build upon established principles of safety engineering as well as…

Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…

As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our…

With the rise of computers, simulation models have emerged beside the more traditional statistical and mathematical models as a third pillar for ecological analysis. Broadly speaking, a simulation model is an algorithm, typically…

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…

We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II…

This article offers several contributions to the interdisciplinary project of responsible research and innovation in data science and AI. First, it provides a critical analysis of current efforts to establish practical mechanisms for…

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

COVID-19 is an acute respiratory disease that has been classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Characterization of this disease is still in its early stages. However, it is known to have high mortality rates, particularly…

Organizations that develop software have recognized that software process models are particularly useful for maintaining a high standard of quality. In the last decade, simulations of software processes were used in several settings and…

Safety and assurance cases risk becoming detached from the understanding needed for responsible engineering and governance decisions. More broadly, the production and evaluation of critical socio-technical systems increasingly face an…

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures…

Computational models are increasingly used in high-impact decision making in science, engineering, and medicine. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses computational models to perform complex experiments that are…

With the growing adoption of agent-based models in policy evaluation, a pressing question arises: Can such systems effectively simulate and analyze complex social scenarios to inform policy decisions? Addressing this challenge could…