相关论文: Enhancing Covid-19 Decision-Making by Creating an …
COVID-19 has spread all over the world, having an enormous effect on our daily life and work. In response to the epidemic, a lot of important decisions need to be taken to save communities and economies worldwide. Data clearly plays a vital…
The ability to perform causal and counterfactual reasoning are central properties of human intelligence. Decision-making systems that can perform these types of reasoning have the potential to be more generalizable and interpretable.…
Systems design processes are increasingly reliant on simulation models to inform design decisions. A pervasive issue within the systems engineering community is trusting in the models used to make decisions about complex systems. This work…
Simulation models are an absolute necessity in the human and social sciences, which can only very exceptionally use experimental science methods to construct their knowledge. Models enable the simulation of social processes by replacing the…
The construction of mathematical models that allow comprehensive approach of decision-making in situations of absence of robust evidence is important. While it is interesting to use models that are easy to understand, using values of direct…
Since the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have applied restrictions in order to slow down its spreading. However, creating such policies is hard, especially because the government needs to trade-off the spreading of the…
Agent-based models play an important role in simulating complex emergent phenomena and supporting critical decisions. In this context, a software fault may result in poorly informed decisions that lead to disastrous consequences. The…
Developers of some safety critical systems construct a safety case. Developers changing a system during development or after release must analyse the change's impact on the safety case. Evidence might be invalidated by changes to the system…
Model-based engineering promises to boost productivity and quality of complex systems development. In the context of safety-critical systems, a traditionally highly regulated and conservative domain, the use of models gained importance in…
As frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems become more capable, it becomes more important that developers can explain why their systems are sufficiently safe. One way to do so is via safety cases: reports that make a structured…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
COVID-19 has been a public health emergency of international concern since early 2020. Reliable forecasting is critical to diminish the impact of this disease. To date, a large number of different forecasting models have been proposed,…
Governments are increasingly turning to algorithmic risk assessments when making important decisions, such as whether to release criminal defendants before trial. Policymakers assert that providing public servants with algorithmic advice…
Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…
Causal Models are increasingly suggested as a means to reason about the behavior of cyber-physical systems in socio-technical contexts. They allow us to analyze courses of events and reason about possible alternatives. Until now, however,…
Computational simulations are a popular method for testing hypotheses about the emergence of communication. This kind of research is performed in a variety of traditions including language evolution, developmental psychology, cognitive…
Declarative approaches to process modeling are regarded as well suited for highly volatile environments as they provide a high degree of flexibility. However, problems in understanding and maintaining declarative business process models…
Frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems pose increasing risks to society, making it essential for developers to provide assurances about their safety. One approach to offering such assurances is through a safety case: a structured,…
Policymaking for complex challenges such as pandemics necessitates the consideration of intricate implications across multiple domains and scales. Computational models can support policymaking, but a single model is often insufficient for…
Safety cases, structured arguments that a system is acceptably safe, are becoming central to the governance of AI systems. Yet, traditional safety-case practices from aviation or nuclear engineering rely on well-specified system boundaries,…