相关论文: Variable pool testing for infection spread estimat…

Physical contacts result in the spread of various phenomena such as viruses, gossips, ideas, packages and marketing pamphlets across a population. The spread depends on how people move and co-locate with each other, or their mobility…

We propose local prediction pools as a method for combining the predictive distributions of a set of experts conditional on a set of variables believed to be related to the predictive accuracy of the experts. This is done in a two step…

As Europe is experiencing a second violent CoVid-19 storm, with the PCR-based testing system deteriorating due to the high volumes of people to be tested daily, there is a general reconsideration of the mathematical theories at the basis of…

The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…

Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…

There are multiple testing methods to ascertain an infection in an individual and they vary in their performances, cost and delay. Unfortunately, better performing tests are sometimes costlier and time consuming and can only be done for a…

Modeling the spread of infections on networks is a well-studied and important field of research. Most infection and diffusion models require a real value or probability on the edges of the network as an input, but this is rarely available…

In this paper, we develop an approach for the exact determination of the minimum sample size for the estimation of a Poisson parameter with prescribed margin of error and confidence level. The exact computation is made possible by reducing…

The rapid spread of COVID-19 and the emergence of new variants underscore the importance of effective screening measures. Rapid diagnosis and subsequent quarantine of infected individuals can prevent further spread of the virus in society.…

The practice of pooling several individual test statistics to form aggregate tests is common in many statistical application where individual tests may be underpowered. While selection by aggregate tests can serve to increase power, the…

In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…

Cure rate models are mostly used to study data arising from cancer clinical trials. Its use in the context of infectious diseases has not been explored well. In 2008, Tournoud and Ecochard first proposed a mechanistic formulation of cure…

The dose-response model has been widely used for quantifying the risk of infection of airborne diseases like COVID-19. The model has been used in the room-average analysis of infection risk and analysis using passive scalars as a proxy for…

This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…

Measuring the prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infections in the general population is difficult because tests are conducted on a small and non-random segment of the population. However, people admitted to the hospital for non-COVID reasons…

A major difficulty to estimate $R$ (the effective reproducing number) of COVID-19 is that most cases of COVID-19 infection are mild or asymptomatic, therefore true number of infection is difficult to determine. This paper estimates the…

Besides mimicking bio-chemical and multi-scale communication mechanisms, molecular communication forms a theoretical framework for virus infection processes. Towards this goal, aerosol and droplet transmission has recently been modeled as a…

The appearance of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in late 2019 has dominated the news in the last few months as it developed into a pandemic. In many mathematics and physics classrooms, instructors are using the time series of the number of…

Serology testing can identify past infection by quantifying the immune response of an infected individual providing important public health guidance. Individual immune responses are time-dependent, which is reflected in antibody…

Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed…