相关论文: COVID-19 epidemic outcome predictions based on log…

The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea. The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. As of September 30, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 33…

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies…

This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…

Norden E. Huang, Fangli Qiao and Ka Kit Tung presented a data-driven model for the COVID-19 epidemic in which the relevant functions depend on a set of seven parameters obtained from a statistical analysis of the available data. These…

Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported…

In this paper, based on the Akaike information criterion, root mean square error and robustness coefficient, a rational evaluation of various epidemic models/methods, including seven empirical functions, four statistical inference methods…

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…

Some ideas are presented about the physical motivation of the apparent capacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of the COVID-19 infection, and in general of quite many other epidemics. The main focuses here are:…

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

Millions of people have been infected and lakhs of people have lost their lives due to the worldwide ongoing novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. It is of utmost importance to identify the future infected cases and the virus spread rate…

The ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. It has already affected more than 300,000 people, with the number of deaths nearing 13000 across the world. As it has been posing a huge…

The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…