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Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2008-02-03 Radford M. Neal

Posterior sampling by Monte Carlo methods provides a more comprehensive solution approach to inverse problems than computing point estimates such as the maximum posterior using optimization methods, at the expense of usually requiring many…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-11-28 Paolo Villani , Daniel Andrés-Arcones , Jörg F. Unger , Martin Weiser

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-04-08 Maurizio Filippone , Mark Girolami

Gaussian process regression is widely used because of its ability to provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and handle small or sparse datasets. However, it struggles with high-dimensional data. One possible way to scale this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-02 Bernardo Fichera , Viacheslav Borovitskiy , Andreas Krause , Aude Billard

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To solve this stochastic economic dispatch,…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2019-09-23 Zhixiong Hu , Yijun Xu , Mert Korkali , Xiao Chen , Lamine Mili , Charles H. Tong

Yield curve forecasting is an important problem in finance. In this work we explore the use of Gaussian Processes in conjunction with a dynamic modeling strategy, much like the Kalman Filter, to model the yield curve. Gaussian Processes…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-03-07 Rajiv Sambasivan , Sourish Das

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Gaussian process regression is a well-established Bayesian machine learning method. We propose a new approach to Gaussian process regression using quantum kernels based on parameterized quantum circuits. By employing a hardware-efficient…

量子物理 · 物理学 2024-02-06 Frederic Rapp , Marco Roth

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-04 Moses Y-H. Chan , Matthew Plumlee , Stefan M. Wild

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

Gaussian Process Regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-09 Christian Fiedler , Carsten W. Scherer , Sebastian Trimpe

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

In this work, we employ the Bayesian inference framework to solve the problem of estimating the solution and particularly, its derivatives, which satisfy a known differential equation, from the given noisy and scarce observations of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-10-09 Hongqiao Wang , Xiang Zhou

Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-07 Laura Swiler , Mamikon Gulian , Ari Frankel , Cosmin Safta , John Jakeman

This paper proposes a new class of real-time optimization schemes to overcome system-model mismatch of uncertain processes. This work's novelty lies in integrating derivative-free optimization schemes and multi-fidelity Gaussian processes…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-11 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Benoit Chachuat , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio-Chanona

Gravitational wave astrophysics relies heavily on the use of matched filtering both to detect signals in noisy data from detectors, and to perform parameter estimation on those signals. Matched filtering relies upon prior knowledge of the…

广义相对论与量子宇宙学 · 物理学 2020-03-18 Daniel Williams , Ik Siong Heng , Jonathan Gair , James A Clark , Bhavesh Khamesra

Many real-world applications demand accurate and fast predictions, as well as reliable uncertainty estimates. However, quantifying uncertainty on high-dimensional predictions is still a severely under-investigated problem, especially when…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-02-04 Saurabh Deshpande , Hussein Rappel , Mark Hobbs , Stéphane P. A. Bordas , Jakub Lengiewicz

Gaussian process is a very promising novel technology that has been applied to both the regression problem and the classification problem. While for the regression problem it yields simple exact solutions, this is not the case for the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-10-18 Amir F. Atiya , Hatem A. Fayed , Ahmed H. Abdel-Gawad