相关论文: A Blackbox Yield Estimation Workflow with Gaussian…

Quantification and minimization of uncertainty is an important task in the design of electromagnetic devices, which comes with high computational effort. We propose a hybrid approach combining the reliability and accuracy of a Monte Carlo…

Engineers widely use Gaussian process regression framework to construct surrogate models aimed to replace computationally expensive physical models while exploring design space. Thanks to Gaussian process properties we can use both samples…

Machine learning models play a vital role in time series forecasting. These models, however, often overlook an important element: point uncertainty estimates. Incorporating these estimates is crucial for effective risk management, informed…

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active…

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Extreme response assessment is important in the design and operation of engineering structures, and is a crucial part of structural risk and reliability analyses. Structures should be designed in a way that enables them to withstand the…

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

In this paper we present an algorithm for yield estimation and optimization exploiting Hessian based optimization methods, an adaptive Monte Carlo (MC) strategy, polynomial surrogates and several error indicators. Yield estimation is used…

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian…

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

In a task where many similar inverse problems must be solved, evaluating costly simulations is impractical. Therefore, replacing the model $y$ with a surrogate model $y_s$ that can be evaluated quickly leads to a significant speedup. The…

Bayesian Optimization is a popular approach for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Its key idea is to use a surrogate model to approximate the objective and, importantly, quantify the associated uncertainty that allows a sequential…

Calibration is a highly challenging task, in particular in multiple yield curve markets. This paper is a first attempt to study the chances and challenges of the application of machine learning techniques for this. We employ Gaussian…

This paper presents a probabilistic surrogate model for the accelerated design of electric vehicle battery enclosures with a focus on crash performance. The study integrates high-throughput finite element simulations and Gaussian Process…

We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for the reliable application of computational models in engineering and science. Among surrogate modeling techniques, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is particularly valuable for its…

Estimating percentiles of black-box deterministic functions with random inputs is a challenging task when the number of function evaluations is severely restricted, which is typical for computer experiments. This article proposes two new…

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Building surrogate models is one common approach when we attempt to learn unknown black-box functions. Bayesian optimization provides a framework which allows us to build surrogate models based on sequential samples drawn from the function…