相关论文: Simulating the Spread of Epidemics in China on the…

In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…

In this article, we model and study the spread of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, India and highly impacted states in India, i.e., in Delhi, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala and Karnataka. We consider recorded data published in Worldometers and…

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies…

In response to the ongoing pandemic and health emergency of COVID-19, several models have been used to understand the dynamics of virus spread. Some employ mathematical models like the compartmental SEIHRD approach and others rely on…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian network model (BNM) to quantitatively evaluate the resilience of urban transportation infrastructure. Based on systemic thinkings and sustainability perspectives, we investigate the long-term…

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and bringing huge influence to socioeconomic development as well as people's daily life. Taking for example the virus…

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The…

We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of…

We study the spread of Covid-19 across neighbourhoods of cities in the developing world and find that small numbers of neighbourhoods account for a majority of cases (k-index~0.7). We also find that the countrywide distribution of cases…

To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…

At the beginning of 2020 the world has seen the initial outbreak of COVID-19, a disease caused by SARS-CoV2 virus in China. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared this disease as a pandemic on March 11 2020. As the disease spread…

Cities have long served as nucleating centers for human development and advancement. Cities have facilitated the spread of both human creativity and human disease, and at the same time, efforts to minimize the spread of disease have…

Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has triggered a worldwide outbreak of pandemic, and transportation services have played a key role in coronavirus transmission. Although not crowded in a confined space like a bus or a metro car, bike…

For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…

Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

We formulate a generalized susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) model on a graph, describing the population dynamics of an open crowded place with an arbitrary topology. As a sample calculation, we discuss three simple cases,…