相关论文: Simulating the Spread of Epidemics in China on the…

The patterns of human mobility play a key role in the spreading of infectious diseases and thus represent a key ingredient of epidemic modeling and forecasting. Unfortunately, as the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted, for the…

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…

The goal of this study is to establish a general framework for predicting the so-called critical Turning Period in an infectious disease epidemic such as the COVID-19 outbreak in China early this year. This framework enabled a timely…

The SEIRS model, an extension of the SEIR model for analyzing and predicting the spread of virus infection, was further extended to consider the movement of people across regions. In contrast to previous models that con-sider the risk of…

The recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus and its rapid spread underlines the importance of understanding human mobility. Enclosed spaces, such as public transport vehicles (e.g. buses and trains), offer a suitable environment for…

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…

With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…

We study the datafor the cumulative as well as daily number of cases in the Covid-19 outbreak in China. The cumulative data can be fit to an empirical form obtained from a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model studied on an Euclidean…

Bus transportation is considered as one of the most convenient and cheapest modes of public transportation in Indian cities. Due to their cost-effectiveness and wide reachability, they help a significant portion of the human population in…

The special epistemic characteristics of the COVID-19, such as the long incubation period and the infection through asymptomatic cases, put severe challenge to the containment of its outbreak. By the end of March 2020, China has…

Since the SARS outbreak in 2003, a lot of predictive epidemiological models have been proposed. At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, termed as 2019-nCoV, has broken out and is propagating in China and the world. Here we propose a…

We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…

The COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused graving woes across the globe since first reported in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, China, December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been…

Multiple small- to middle-scale cities, mostly located in northern China, became epidemic hotspots during the second wave of the spread of COVID-19 in early 2021. Despite qualitative discussions of potential social-economic causes, it…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is changing and impacting lives on a global scale. In this paper, we introduce a mean-field game model in controlling the propagation of epidemics on a spatial domain. The control variable,…

Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…

There were 27 novel coronavirus pneumonia cases found in Wuhan, China in December 2019, named as 2019-nCoV temporarily and COVID-19 formally by WHO on 11 February, 2020. In December 2019 and January 2020, COVID-19 has spread in large scale…

Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing…

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…

The epidemic spreading on arbitrary complex networks is studied in SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) compartment model. We propose our implementation of a Naive SIR algorithm for epidemic simulation spreading on networks that uses data…