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Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

Expectation Propagation (EP) is a widely used message-passing algorithm that decomposes a global inference problem into multiple local ones. It approximates marginal distributions (beliefs) using intermediate functions (messages). While…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Zilu Zhao , Fangqing Xiao , Dirk Slock

We propose a principled framework for nonparametric empirical Bayes (EB) estimation, based on the idea that the prior should be consistent with the observed posterior and that Bayesian updating should be stable. Focusing on discretized…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-14 Valentino Dardanoni , Stefano Demichelis

We develop a general class of Bayesian repulsive Gaussian mixture models that encourage well-separated clusters, aiming at reducing potentially redundant components produced by independent priors for locations (such as the Dirichlet…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-24 Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible distributions over functions that enable high-level assumptions about unknown functions to be encoded in a parsimonious, flexible and general way. Although elegant, the application of GPs is limited by…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-10-06 Thang D. Bui , Josiah Yan , Richard E. Turner

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

Although Bayes's theorem demands a prior that is a probability distribution on the parameter space, the calculus associated with Bayes's theorem sometimes generates sensible procedures from improper priors, Pitman's estimator being a good…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-12-15 Peter McCullagh , Han Han

For many years it was routine to use equal model prior probabilities in Bayesian model uncertainty analysis. At least twenty years ago it became clear that this was problematic, leading to support of much too large models in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-23 James Berger , Gonzalo García-Donato , Elías Moreno , Luis Pericchi

Motivated by deep neural networks, the deep Gaussian process (DGP) generalizes the standard GP by stacking multiple layers of GPs. Despite the enhanced expressiveness, GP, as an $L_2$ regularization prior, tends to be over-smooth and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-30 Zhi Chang , Chukwudi Obite , Shuang Zhou , Shiwei Lan

We study Bayesian estimation of mixture models and argue in favor of fitting the marginal posterior distribution over component assignments directly, rather than Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior on components and parameters as is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-11-03 M. E. J. Newman

An expanded family of mixtures of multivariate power exponential distributions is introduced. While fitting heavy-tails and skewness has received much attention in the model-based clustering literature recently, we investigate the use of a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-06-15 Utkarsh J. Dang , Ryan P. Browne , Paul D. McNicholas

In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-19 Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari , Ole Winther , Lars Kai Hansen

Bayesian inversion generates a posterior distribution of model parameters from an observation equation and prior information both weighted by hyperparameters. The prior is also introduced for the hyperparameters in fully Bayesian inversions…

地球物理 · 物理学 2022-07-20 Dye SK Sato , Yukitoshi Fukahata , Yohei Nozue

This paper studies the sparse normal mean models under the empirical Bayes framework. We focus on the mixture priors with an atom at zero and a density component centered at a data driven location determined by maximizing the marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-20 Xianyang Zhang , Anirban Bhattacharya

Denoising diffusion models have driven significant progress in the field of Bayesian inverse problems. Recent approaches use pre-trained diffusion models as priors to solve a wide range of such problems, only leveraging inference-time…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-06 Yazid Janati , Badr Moufad , Mehdi Abou El Qassime , Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-27 F. Llorente , L. Martino , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , D. Delgado

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier

Multi-level normal hierarchical models, also interpreted as mixed effects models, play an important role in developing statistical theory in multi-parameter estimation for a wide range of applications. In this article, we propose a novel…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-18 Aditi Sen , Masayo Y. Hirose , Partha Lahiri