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Off-policy evaluation learns a target policy's value with a historical dataset generated by a different behavior policy. In addition to a point estimate, many applications would benefit significantly from having a confidence interval (CI)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-09 Chengchun Shi , Runzhe Wan , Victor Chernozhukov , Rui Song

Despite the success achieved by the analysis of supervised learning algorithms in the framework of statistical mechanics, reinforcement learning has remained largely untouched. Here we move towards closing the gap by analyzing the dynamics…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-09-02 Riccardo Fabbricatore , Vladimir V. Palyulin

Recent work on policy learning from observational data has highlighted the importance of efficient policy evaluation and has proposed reductions to weighted (cost-sensitive) classification. But, efficient policy evaluation need not yield…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-13 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus

In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-24 Vincent Liu , Yash Chandak , Philip Thomas , Martha White

With the rise of the digital economy and an explosion of available information about consumers, effective personalization of goods and services has become a core business focus for companies to improve revenues and maintain a competitive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-04 Zhaonan Qu , Isabella Qian , Zhengyuan Zhou

This paper develops the first policy gradient method with global optimality guarantee and complexity analysis for robust reinforcement learning under model mismatch. Robust reinforcement learning is to learn a policy robust to model…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-17 Yue Wang , Shaofeng Zou

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

This work addresses the finite-horizon robust covariance control problem for discrete-time, partially observable, linear system affected by random zero mean noise and deterministic but unknown disturbances restricted to lie in what is…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-07-02 Georgios Kotsalis , Guanghui Lan , Arkadi Nemirovski

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) model specific environments in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Critically, optimal policies for POMDPs may not be robust against perturbations in the environment.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-08-21 Maris F. L. Galesloot , Roman Andriushchenko , Milan Češka , Sebastian Junges , Nils Jansen

This paper studies the statistical theory of batch data reinforcement learning with function approximation. Consider the off-policy evaluation problem, which is to estimate the cumulative value of a new target policy from logged history…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-02-25 Yaqi Duan , Mengdi Wang

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Having a perfect model to compute the optimal policy is often infeasible in reinforcement learning. It is important in high-stakes domains to quantify and manage risk induced by model uncertainties. Entropic risk measure is an exponential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-23 Reazul Hasan Russel , Bahram Behzadian , Marek Petrik

Recently, robust reinforcement learning (RL) methods against input observation have garnered significant attention and undergone rapid evolution due to RL's potential vulnerability. Although these advanced methods have achieved reasonable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-04 Kosuke Nakanishi , Akihiro Kubo , Yuji Yasui , Shin Ishii

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-30 M. Usaid Awan , Yameng Liu , Marco Morucci , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

This paper proposes an off-policy risk-sensitive reinforcement learning based control framework for stabilization of a continuous-time nonlinear system that subjects to additive disturbances, input saturation, and state constraints. By…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2022-04-21 Cong Li , Qingchen Liu , Zhehua Zhou , Martin Buss , Fangzhou Liu

This paper investigates the problem of online prediction learning, where learning proceeds continuously as the agent interacts with an environment. The predictions made by the agent are contingent on a particular way of behaving,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-08 Sina Ghiassian , Andrew Patterson , Martha White , Richard S. Sutton , Adam White

We explore reinforcement learning methods for finding the optimal policy in the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) problem. In particular, we consider the convergence of policy gradient methods in the setting of known and unknown parameters.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-25 Ben Hambly , Renyuan Xu , Huining Yang

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-13 Luke Guerdan , Amanda Coston , Kenneth Holstein , Zhiwei Steven Wu

This paper studies identification and inference of the welfare gain that results from switching from one policy (such as the status quo policy) to another policy. The welfare gain is not point identified in general when data are obtained…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-07-12 Undral Byambadalai

This paper aims to establish an entropy-regularized value-based reinforcement learning method that can ensure the monotonic improvement of policies at each policy update. Unlike previously proposed lower-bounds on policy improvement in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-26 Lingwei Zhu , Takamitsu Matsubara