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The coronavirus which appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan has spread out worldwide and caused the death of more than 280,000 people (as of May, 11 2020). Since February 2020, doubts were raised about the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths…
Nowadays, the epidemic of COVID-19 in China is under control. However, the epidemic are developing rapidly around the world. Due to the normal migration of population, China is facing high risk from imported cases. The potential specific…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 in India after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan city, China. We estimate the transmission rate of the initial infecting individuals of COVID-19 in India by using the officially reported…
The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment…
The special epistemic characteristics of the COVID-19, such as the long incubation period and the infection through asymptomatic cases, put severe challenge to the containment of its outbreak. By the end of March 2020, China has…
The COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused graving woes across the globe since first reported in the epicenter Wuhan, Hubei, China, December 2019. The spread of COVID-19 in China has been…
Objectives.--To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Methods.--Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with…
Epidemic is a rapid and wide spread of infectious disease threatening many lives and economy damages. It is important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime so to decide on timely and remedic actions. These measures include closing borders,…
Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to construct public health interventions. Spatially referenced data can provide richer opportunities to understand the mechanism of the…
The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most…
Understanding how interurban movements can modify the spatial distribution of the population is important for transport planning but is also a fundamental ingredient for epidemic modeling. We focus here on vacation trips (for all…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…
With the outbreak of COVID-19, how to mitigate and suppress its spread is a big issue to the government. Department of public health need powerful models to model and predict the trend and scale of such pandemic. And models that could…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
With rapid transmission, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to over 2 million deaths worldwide, posing significant societal challenges. Understanding the spatial patterns of patient visits and detecting the local spreading…
Since December 2019, A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been breaking out in China, which can cause respiratory diseases and severe pneumonia. Mathematical and empirical models relying on the epidemic situation scale for forecasting…
The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind…