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This note presents sharp inequalities for deviation probability of a general quadratic form of a random vector \(\xiv\) with finite exponential moments. The obtained deviation bounds are similar to the case of a Gaussian random vector. The…

概率论 · 数学 2013-02-08 Vladimir Spokoiny

Consider the projection of an $n$-dimensional random vector onto a random $k_n$-dimensional basis, $k_n \leq n$, drawn uniformly from the Haar measure on the Stiefel manifold of orthonormal $k_n$-frames in $\mathbb{R}^n$, in three different…

概率论 · 数学 2021-10-28 Steven Soojin Kim , Yin-Ting Liao , Kavita Ramanan

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

概率论 · 数学 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

We consider exponential large deviations estimates for unbounded observables on uniformly expanding dynamical systems. We show that uniform expansion does not imply the existence of a rate function for unbounded observables no matter the…

动力系统 · 数学 2019-04-05 Andrew Torok , Matthew Nicol

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…

概率论 · 数学 2020-10-20 Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

We consider the $p$-generalized arithmetic-geometric mean inequality for vectors chosen randomly from the $\ell_p^n$-ball in $\mathbb{R}^n$. In this setting the inequality can be improved or reversed up to a respective scalar constant with…

概率论 · 数学 2021-12-09 Tom Kaufmann , Christoph Thäle

What does an Erdos-Renyi graph look like when a rare event happens? This paper answers this question when p is fixed and n tends to infinity by establishing a large deviation principle under an appropriate topology. The formulation and…

概率论 · 数学 2011-04-05 Sourav Chatterjee , S. R. S. Varadhan

Recent works have shown that high probability metrics with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) exhibit informativeness and in some cases advantage over the commonly adopted mean-square error-based ones. In this work we provide a formal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-03 Dragana Bajovic , Dusan Jakovetic , Soummya Kar

For any fixed simple graph $H=(V,E)$ and any fixed $u>0$, we establish the leading order of the exponential rate function for the probability that the number of copies of $H$ in the Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi graph $G(n,p)$ exceeds its expectation…

概率论 · 数学 2020-04-28 Nicholas A. Cook , Amir Dembo

The theory of large deviations deals with the probabilities of rare events (or fluctuations) that are exponentially small as a function of some parameter, e.g., the number of random components of a system, the time over which a stochastic…

统计力学 · 物理学 2012-03-01 Hugo Touchette

We develop a quantitative large deviations theory for random hypergraphs, which rests on tensor decomposition and counting lemmas under a novel family of cut-type norms. As our main application, we obtain sharp asymptotics for joint upper…

概率论 · 数学 2023-05-10 Nicholas A. Cook , Amir Dembo , Huy Tuan Pham

In this paper, we present large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events of stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise. We aim to consider next-to-leading-order approximation for more…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-21 Yang Li , Shenglan Yuan , Linghongzhi Lu , Xianbin Liu

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

There is a result of Diaconis and Freedman which says that, in a limiting sense, for large collections of high-dimensional data most one-dimensional projections of the data are approximately Gaussian. This paper gives quantitative versions…

概率论 · 数学 2010-05-18 Elizabeth Meckes

We study large deviations for some non-local parabolic type equations. We show that, under some assumptions on the non-local term, problems defined in a bounded domain converge with an exponential rate to the solution of the problem defined…

偏微分方程分析 · 数学 2008-12-01 Cristina Brändle , Emmanuel Chasseigne

We find large deviation principles for the degree distribution and the proportion of isolated vertices for the near intermediate random geometric graph models on n vertices placed uniformly in [0, 1]^d, for d in N. In the course of the…

概率论 · 数学 2014-06-13 Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

Let $X_k$ denote the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions in a random subset of $\mathbb{Z}/N\mathbb{Z}$ or $\{1, \dots, N\}$ where every element is included independently with probability $p$. We determine the asymptotics of $\log…

The theory of large deviations is concerned with the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. These probabilities are important in many fields of study, including statistics, finance, and engineering, as…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-08-20 Hugo Touchette

The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail…

概率论 · 数学 2014-07-03 Vincent Leijdekker , Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-12-10 Farzad Pourbabaee , Omid Shams Solari