相关论文: A Bayesian Application in Judicial Decisions

Trial-based economic evaluations are typically performed on cross-sectional variables, derived from the responses for only the completers in the study, using methods that ignore the complexities of utility and cost data (e.g. skewness and…

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…

In this paper, we study axiomatic foundations of Bayesian persuasion, where a principal (i.e., sender) delegates the task of choice making after informing a biased agent (i.e., receiver) about the payoff relevant uncertain state (see, e.g.,…

Policy inference plays an essential role in the contextual bandit problem. In this paper, we use empirical likelihood to develop a Bayesian inference method for the joint analysis of multiple contextual bandit policies in finite sample…

Civil liability for a lost chance applies to legal cases in which a tortious action changes the probabilities of the outcomes that can be obtained by the victim. A central point in the application of this type of liability is the valuation…

In this paper we present a business case carried out in Poste Italiane, in the context of fair performance evaluations of human resources engaged in internal audit activities. In addition to the development of a Bayesian network supporting…

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

This article presents a pragmatic framework for making formal, utility-based decisions from statistical inferences. The method calculates an expected utility score for an intervention by combining Bayesian posterior probabilities of…

The Bayesian approach has proved to be a coherent approach to handle ill posed Inverse problems. However, the Bayesian calculations need either an optimization or an integral calculation. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation requires…

Actuarial risk assessments might be unduly perceived as a neutral way to counteract implicit bias and increase the fairness of decisions made at almost every juncture of the criminal justice system, from pretrial release to sentencing,…

We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

In the case of informative sampling the sampling scheme explicitly or implicitly depends on the response variable. As a result, the sample distribution of response variable can- not be used for making inference about the population. In this…

This paper describes the use of flexible Bayesian regression models for estimating a partially identified probability function. Our approach permits efficient sensitivity analysis concerning the posterior impact of priors on the partially…

Artificial intelligence can cause inconvenience, harm, or other unintended consequences in various ways, including those that arise from defects or malfunctions in the AI system itself or those caused by its use or misuse. Responsibility…

DNA evidence use in problems of civil and criminal identification is becoming greater. The necessity of evaluating the weight of that evidence may be accomplished using one of the most known powerful tools: the Bayesian networks. In the…

We consider Bayesian optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box objective function, where we also have access to cheaper approximations of the objective. In general, such approximations arise in applications such as reinforcement…

Our Bayesian approach to Mendelian Randomisation uses multiple instruments to assess the putative causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. The approach is robust to violations of the (untestable) Exclusion Restriction condition, and…

We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We…

We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate…