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We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-12 Arman Oganisian , Jason A. Roy

We study the problem of causal effect identification from observational distribution given the causal graph and some context-specific independence (CSI) relations. It was recently shown that this problem is NP-hard, and while a sound…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-18 Ehsan Mokhtarian , Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

Recently, there has been a growing interest in learning and explaining causal effects within Neural Network (NN) models. By virtue of NN architectures, previous approaches consider only direct and total causal effects assuming independence…

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-28 Tom Hochsprung , Nils Sturma , Jakob Runge , Mathias Drton , Andreas Gerhardus

In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2024-05-29 Alka Yadav , Sourish Das , Anirban Chakraborti

Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-09 Lin Gui , Victor Veitch

Estimating causal effects among different events is of great importance to critical fields such as drug development. Nevertheless, the data features associated with events may be distributed across various silos and remain private within…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-05 Yuxuan Liu , Haozhao Wang , Shuang Wang , Zhiming He , Wenchao Xu , Jialiang Zhu , Fan Yang

Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are common in applied causal inference research. However, when outcomes are latent variables assessed via psychometric instruments such as educational tests, standard methods ignore the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-27 Joshua B. Gilbert , Zachary Himmelsbach , James Soland , Mridul Joshi , Benjamin W. Domingue

The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-09 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Causal effect estimation under observational studies is challenging due to the lack of ground truth data and treatment assignment bias. Though various methods exist in literature for addressing this problem, most of them ignore…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-12-11 Abhinav Thorat , Ravi Kolla , Niranjan Pedanekar

Inference of causality is central in nonlinear time series analysis and science in general. A popular approach to infer causality between two processes is to measure the information flow between them in terms of transfer entropy. Using…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2015-04-16 Jie Sun , Erik M. Bollt

In this paper, we introduce a new causal methodology that accounts for the rarity and frequency of events in observational studies based on their relevance to the underlying problem. Specifically, we propose a direct causal effect metric…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-02-28 Usef Faghihi , Amir Saki

Artificial intelligence models and methods commonly lack causal interpretability. Despite the advancements in interpretable machine learning (IML) methods, they frequently assign importance to features which lack causal influence on the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-29 Francisco Nunes Ferreira Quialheiro Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

We consider a causal inference model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. In particular, we suppose that the form of network interference is unknown to researchers. To…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-05 Martin Emil Jakobsen

Integrated Information Theory (IIT) is a prominent theory of consciousness that has at its centre measures that quantify the extent to which a system generates more information than the sum of its parts. While several candidate measures of…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2019-01-30 Pedro A. M. Mediano , Anil K. Seth , Adam B. Barrett

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang
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