相关论文: How much is optimal reinsurance degraded by error?

Sparse reduced rank regression is an essential statistical learning method. In the contemporary literature, estimation is typically formulated as a nonconvex optimization that often yields to a local optimum in numerical computation. Yet,…

In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…

The choice of the parameter value for regularized inverse problems is critical to the results and remains a topic of interest. This article explores a criterion for selecting a good parameter value by maximizing the probability of the data,…

Prediction models are often employed in estimating parameters of optimization models. Despite the fact that in an end-to-end view, the real goal is to achieve good optimization performance, the prediction performance is measured on its own.…

Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their…

Randomized benchmarking (RB) is widely used to measure an error rate of a set of quantum gates, by performing random circuits that would do nothing if the gates were perfect. In the limit of no finite-sampling error, the exponential decay…

We study the loss in objective value when an inaccurate objective is optimized instead of the true one, and show that "on average" this loss is very small, for an arbitrary compact feasible region.

We consider learning methods based on the regularization of a convex empirical risk by a squared Hilbertian norm, a setting that includes linear predictors and non-linear predictors through positive-definite kernels. In order to go beyond…

Overrides of credit ratings are important correctives of ratings that are determined by statistical rating models. Financial institutions and banking regulators agree on this because on the one hand errors with ratings of corporates or…

Optimization is offered as an objective approach to resolving complex, real-world decisions involving uncertainty and conflicting interests. It drives business strategies as well as public policies and, increasingly, lies at the heart of…

In this paper, we consider matrix completion with absolute deviation loss and obtain an estimator of the median matrix. Despite several appealing properties of median, the non-smooth absolute deviation loss leads to computational challenge…

Many results have been proved for various nuclear norm penalized estimators of the uniform sampling matrix completion problem. However, most of these estimators are not robust: in most of the cases the quadratic loss function and its…

In this paper we study the optimal investment and reinsurance problem of an insurance company whose investment preferences are described via a forward dynamic exponential utility in a regime-switching market model. Financial and actuarial…

We analyze the potential of reinsurance for reversing the current trend of decreasing capital guarantees in life insurance products. Providing an insurer with an opportunity to shift part of the financial risk to a reinsurer, we solve the…

Tuning parameters are parameters involved in an estimating procedure for the purpose of reducing the risk of some other estimator. Examples include the degree of penalization in penalized regression and likelihood problems, as well as the…

A great deal of inference in statistics is based on making the approximation that a statistic is normally distributed. The error in doing so is generally $O(n^{-1/2})$ and can be very considerable when the distribution is heavily biased or…

The sharpest known high probability generalization bounds for uniformly stable algorithms (Feldman, Vondr\'{a}k, 2018, 2019), (Bousquet, Klochkov, Zhivotovskiy, 2020) contain a generally inevitable sampling error term of order…

In this research, starting from a widely accepted definition of risk, we support the idea that risk reduction is a more realistic objective than risk minimization, which represents a theoretical utopia. Furthermore, significant risk…

Inference-time computation offers a powerful axis for scaling the performance of language models. However, naively increasing computation in techniques like Best-of-N sampling can lead to performance degradation due to reward hacking.…

We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…