相关论文: Regularized Estimation of High-dimensional Factor-…

This paper considers an augmented double autoregressive (DAR) model, which allows null volatility coefficients to circumvent the over-parameterization problem in the DAR model. Since the volatility coefficients might be on the boundary, the…

We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…

We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…

We propose a novel framework for analyzing multivariate time series (MTS) data by integrating non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with vector autoregression (VAR). Termed NMF-VAR, this method models the coefficient matrix of NMF as a…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is an institutional measure of risk favored by financial regulators. VaR may be interpreted as a quantile of future portfolio values conditional on the information available, where the most common quantile used is 95%.…

Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic reduced-dimensional vector autoregressive (PredVAR) model with oblique projections. This model partitions the measurement space into a dynamic subspace and a static subspace that do not need to be…

Estimation of the value-at-risk (VaR) of a large portfolio of assets is an important task for financial institutions. As the joint log-returns of asset prices can often be projected to a latent space of a much smaller dimension, the use of…

We use information from higher order moments to achieve identification of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models, possibly non-fundamental or non-causal, through a frequency domain criterion based on a…

Matrix-variate time series data are increasingly popular in economics, statistics, and environmental studies, among other fields. This paper develops regularized estimation methods for analyzing high-dimensional matrix-variate time series…

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has gained popularity for its shift towards next-scale prediction. However, existing VAR paradigms process the entire token map at each scale step, leading to the complexity and runtime scaling…

This paper proposes a new methodological framework for estimating inferential models with latent variables. It also introduces a new latent variable regression model called LARX: an extension of the ubiquitous autoregressive model with…

Factor models are a very efficient way to describe high dimensional vectors of data in terms of a small number of common relevant factors. This problem, which is of fundamental importance in many disciplines, is usually reformulated in…

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic reduced-dimensional vector autoregressive (PredVAR) model to extract low-dimensional dynamics from high-dimensional noisy data. The model utilizes an oblique projection to partition the measurement…

We consider the problem of predicting an outcome variable using $p$ covariates that are measured on $n$ independent observations, in the setting in which flexible and interpretable fits are desirable. We propose the fused lasso additive…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

We introduce a new class of adaptive non-linear autoregressive (Nlar) models incorporating the concept of momentum, which dynamically estimate both the learning rates and momentum as the number of iterations increases. In our method, the…

Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) based on next-scale prediction has revitalized autoregressive visual generation. Although its full-context dependency, i.e., modeling all previous scales for next-scale prediction, facilitates more…

Repeated measures analyses require proper choice of the correlation model to ensure accurate inference and optimal efficiency. The linear exponent autoregressive (LEAR) correlation model provides a flexible two-parameter correlation…

While inference-time scaling has significantly enhanced generative quality in large language and diffusion models, its application to vector-quantized (VQ) visual autoregressive modeling (VAR) remains unexplored. We introduce VAR-Scaling,…