相关论文: Forecast Evaluation of Quantiles, Prediction Inter…

This paper proposes a general interpretable predictive system with shared information. The system is able to perform predictions in a multi-task setting where distinct tasks are not bound to have the same input/output structure. Embeddings…

Many key quantities in statistics and probability theory such as the expectation, quantiles, expectiles and many risk measures are law-determined maps from a space of random variables to the reals. We call such a law-determined map, which…

In this work, we focus on the use of influence functions to identify relevant training examples that one might hope "explain" the predictions of a machine learning model. One shortcoming of influence functions is that the training examples…

In this paper we study the complexity of the problems: given a loop, described by linear constraints over a finite set of variables, is there a linear or lexicographical-linear ranking function for this loop? While existence of such…

Machine learning (ML) models have shown success in applications with an objective of prediction, but the algorithmic complexity of some models makes them difficult to interpret. Methods have been proposed to provide insight into these…

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Explanations in Machine Learning come in many forms, but a consensus regarding their desired properties is yet to emerge. In this paper we introduce a taxonomy and a set of descriptors that can be used to characterise and systematically…

While the predictions produced by conformal prediction are set-valued, the data used for training and calibration is supposed to be precise. In the setting of superset learning or learning from partial labels, a variant of weakly supervised…

We study a syntax for specifying quantitative "assertions" - functions mapping program states to numbers - for probabilistic program verification. We prove that our syntax is expressive in the following sense: Given any probabilistic…

In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the…

This paper lays out a principled approach to compare copula forecasts via strictly consistent scores. We first establish the negative result that, in general, copulas fail to be elicitable, implying that copula predictions cannot sensibly…

Rank and PIT histograms are established tools to assess the calibration of probabilistic forecasts. They not only check whether an ensemble forecast is calibrated, but they also reveal what systematic biases (if any) are present in the…

There is a growing concern about typically opaque decision-making with high-performance machine learning algorithms. Providing an explanation of the reasoning process in domain-specific terms can be crucial for adoption in risk-sensitive…

A choice of optimization objective is immensely pivotal in the design of a recommender system as it affects the general modeling process of a user's intent from previous interactions. Existing approaches mainly adhere to three categories of…

Rigorous guarantees about the performance of predictive algorithms are necessary in order to ensure their responsible use. Previous work has largely focused on bounding the expected loss of a predictor, but this is not sufficient in many…

Adaptive specification search generates statistically significant backtests even under martingale-difference nulls. We introduce a falsification audit testing complete predictive workflows against synthetic reference classes, including…

Forecasting future events is a fundamental capability for general-purpose systems that plan or act across different levels of abstraction. Yet, evaluating whether a forecast is "correct" remains challenging due to the inherent uncertainty…

Incorporation of expert information in inference or decision settings is often important, especially in cases where data are unavailable, costly or unreliable. One approach is to elicit prior quantiles from an expert and then to fit these…

A "numerical set-expression" is a term specifying a cascade of arithmetic and logical operations to be performed on sets of non-negative integers. If these operations are confined to the usual Boolean operations together with the result of…

We propose a functional linear model to predict a response using multiple functional and longitudinal predictors and to estimate the effect lags of predictors. The coefficient functions are written as the expansion of a basis system (e.g.…