相关论文: Forecast Evaluation of Quantiles, Prediction Inter…

In computational reinforcement learning, a growing body of work seeks to express an agent's model of the world through predictions about future sensations. In this manuscript we focus on predictions expressed as General Value Functions:…

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative…

Empirical investigations into unintended model behavior often show that the algorithm is predicting another outcome than what was intended. These exposes highlight the need to identify when algorithms predict unintended quantities - ideally…

Many semantics for weighted argumentation frameworks assume that each argument is associated with an initial weight. However, eliciting these initial weights poses challenges: (1) accurately providing a specific numerical value is often…

Neural document ranking models perform impressively well due to superior language understanding gained from pre-training tasks. However, due to their complexity and large number of parameters, these (typically transformer-based) models are…

LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments…

Parameter estimation via M- and Z-estimation is equally powerful in semiparametric models for one-dimensional functionals due to a one-to-one relation between corresponding loss and identification functions via integration and…

A new characterization of provably recursive functions of first-order arithmetic is described. Its main feature is using only terms consisting of 0, the successor S and variables in the quantifier rules, namely, universal elimination and…

Contemporary predictive models are hard to interpret as their deep nets exploit numerous complex relations between input elements. This work suggests a theoretical framework for model interpretability by measuring the contribution of…

High-dimensional functional data have become increasingly prevalent in modern applications such as high-frequency financial data and neuroimaging data analysis. We investigate a class of high-dimensional linear regression models, where each…

Functional linear regression is an important topic in functional data analysis. It is commonly assumed that samples of the functional predictor are independent realizations of an underlying stochastic process, and are observed over a grid…

The essential variables in a finite function $f$ are defined as variables which occur in $f$ and weigh with the values of that function. The number of essential variables is an important measure of complexity for discrete functions. When…

Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms that output prediction sets that have a guarantee of marginal validity for finite samples with minimal distributional assumptions. This is a property that makes conformal predictors…

Observations which are realizations from some continuous process are frequent in sciences, engineering, economics, and other fields. We consider linear models, with possible random effects, where the responses are random functions in a…

Functional principal component analysis has been shown to be invaluable for revealing variation modes of longitudinal outcomes, which serves as important building blocks for forecasting and model building. Decades of research have advanced…

Traditional parametric econometric models often rely on rigid functional forms, while nonparametric techniques, despite their flexibility, frequently lack interpretability. This paper proposes a parsimonious alternative by modeling the…

In this paper we extend the setting of the online prediction with expert advice to function-valued forecasts. At each step of the online game several experts predict a function, and the learner has to efficiently aggregate these functional…

In this work, we study the fully automated inference of expected result values of probabilistic programs in the presence of natural programming constructs such as procedures, local variables and recursion. While crucial, capturing these…

Neural rationale models are popular for interpretable predictions of NLP tasks. In these, a selector extracts segments of the input text, called rationales, and passes these segments to a classifier for prediction. Since the rationale is…

We exhibit a sound and complete implicit-complexity formalism for functions feasibly computable by structural recursions over inductively defined data structures. Feasibly computable here means that the structural-recursive definition runs…