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The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-03-06 Dan Li , Adam Clements , Christopher Drovandi

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-26 Kei Ishikawa , Takashi Goda

Classical evolutionary approaches for multiobjective optimization are quite accurate but incur a lot of queries to the objectives; this can be prohibitive when objectives are expensive oracles. A sample-efficient approach to solving…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-02-18 Ashwin Renganathan , Kade E. Carlson

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-12-04 James T. Wilson , Frank Hutter , Marc Peter Deisenroth

Quantum mechanics for many-body systems may be reduced to the evaluation of integrals in 3N dimensions using Monte-Carlo, providing the Quantum Monte Carlo ab initio methods. Here we limit ourselves to expectation values for trial…

计算物理 · 物理学 2010-11-22 John Robert Trail , Ryo Maezono

Bayesian Optimization is a sample-efficient black-box optimization procedure that is typically applied to problems with a small number of independent objectives. However, in practice we often wish to optimize objectives defined over many…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-29 Wesley J. Maddox , Maximilian Balandat , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Eytan Bakshy

Bayesian optimization has become a popular method for high-throughput computing, like the design of computer experiments or hyperparameter tuning of expensive models, where sample efficiency is mandatory. In these applications, distributed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-08 Javier Garcia-Barcos , Ruben Martinez-Cantin

The Python package pyABC provides a framework for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a likelihood-free parameter inference method popular in many research areas. At its core, it implements a sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) scheme, with…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2022-03-25 Yannik Schälte , Emmanuel Klinger , Emad Alamoudi , Jan Hasenauer

We present a novel preference learning framework to capture participant preferences efficiently within limited interaction rounds. It involves three main contributions. First, we develop a variational Bayesian approach to infer the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-20 Yan Wang , Jiapeng Liu , Milosz Kadziński , Xiuwu Liao

Much recent research has been conducted in the area of Bayesian learning, particularly with regard to the optimization of hyper-parameters via Gaussian process regression. The methodologies rely chiefly on the method of maximizing the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-05-13 James Brofos

Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-27 Thomas E. Coons , Aniket Jivani , Xun Huan

The optimization of expensive black-box functions is ubiquitous in science and engineering. A common solution to this problem is Bayesian optimization (BO), which is generally comprised of two components: (i) a surrogate model and (ii) an…

Motivated by the growing need for black-box optimization and data privacy, we introduce a collaborative Bayesian optimization (BO) framework that addresses both of these challenges. In this framework agents work collaboratively to optimize…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-16 Donglin Zhan , Haoting Zhang , Rhonda Righter , Zeyu Zheng , James Anderson

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful technology for optimizing noisy expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, with a broad range of real-world applications in science, engineering, economics, manufacturing, and beyond. In this paper,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-30 Joel A. Paulson , Calvin Tsay

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a popular framework for optimizing black-box functions. Despite its effectiveness, BO is often inefficient for high-dimensional problems due to the exponential growth of the search space, heterogeneity of the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-05-08 Sourav Das , Debjani Chakraborty , Pabitra Mitra

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-03 Jack M. Buckingham , Ivo Couckuyt , Juergen Branke

In this paper we propose an efficient stochastic optimization algorithm to search for Bayesian experimental designs such that the expected information gain is maximized. The gradient of the expected information gain with respect to…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-02-03 Takashi Goda , Tomohiko Hironaka , Wataru Kitade , Adam Foster

Bayesian Optimization (BO) has become a core method for solving expensive black-box optimization problems. While much research focussed on the choice of the acquisition function, we focus on online length-scale adaption and the choice of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-12-12 Kim Peter Wabersich , Marc Toussaint